Shadow Idea Scoreboard and Daily Ledgers

Idea	Status	Owner	Edge	Fresh Days	Affected	Data	Next Action
Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation	keep-testing	Strategy Research + Paper Trading Operations	$87.30	8/10	8	daily ledger ready	Continue collecting fresh winner-like shadow days without mutating the official paper logic.
Best Single vs Basket	promotion-review	Strategy Research	$23.10	18/10	10	daily ledger ready	Open Strategy/Risk/QA promotion review; continue tracking out-of-sample days and do not change live paper behavior.
Momentum Over Reversal Tiebreak	keep-testing	Strategy Research	$3.84	18/10	4	daily ledger ready	Continue fresh-day tracking and require out-of-sample confirmation before promotion.
Neutral Candle Size Discount	keep-testing	Paper Trading Operations	$0.60	18/10	13	daily ledger ready	Continue fresh-day tracking and require out-of-sample confirmation before promotion.
Adaptive Exit Replay	keep-testing	Paper Trading Operations		1/10	1	needs extra data	Continue collecting fresh checkpoint packets and run variant-by-variant full-day exit replay after each closed paper day.
Wide-To-Narrow Runner Ladder	promotion-review	Paper Trading Operations	$1396.63	10/10	4943	daily ledger ready	Open Strategy/Risk/QA promotion review; continue tracking out-of-sample days and do not change live paper behavior.
Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation	keep-testing	Market Discovery		8/10	8	daily ledger ready	Continue side-by-side full-day replay until 10 fresh days and at least 5 affected days are available.

Idea

Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation keep-testing

Strategy Research + Paper Trading Operations | daily shadow selection

Measured Edge

$87.30

Fresh days 8/10 | Affected 8

Current State

active-shadow-tracking

Continue collecting fresh winner-like shadow days without mutating the official paper logic.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/winner-like-early-confirmation-shadow-basket/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: winner-like-day-ledger

Today

State

attempted-not-counted

2026-06-08 | gate 09:50 ET

Today's winner-like strategy artifact was refreshed provisionally; it will not count until the full-day replay after the final window.

Normal Basket

AIR

Comparison only; this study does not mutate official paper behavior.

Winner-Like Shadow Basket

GFLCBRE

2026-06-08 | provisional-intraday-replay-not-counted | active-shadow-study-replayed | frozen-preliminary-selection-replayed

Counts today: no | Final: no | Provisional outcome: $13.50

Symbol	Rank	Entry	Latest / Exit	P/L	High	Low	Runner	Data
GFL	1	09:35 @ $35.08	11:30 @ $35.54 (runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate)	$6.65 / +1.33%	+2.42%	0.00%	active	same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local / full-day
CBRE	2	09:35 @ $130.75	11:30 @ $132.54 (runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate)	$6.85 / +1.37%	+2.56%	-0.19%	active	same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local / full-day

Entered Paper Basket

AIR

2026-06-08 | entered-paper-basket | official-paper-ledger-and-position-exit-reports

Symbol	Status	Score	P/L	P/L %	Trigger	Data
AIR	closed	88	-$4.45	-0.90%	stop-loss	fresh-live-like / good

Pre-Confirmation Roster

Rank	Symbol	Bucket	Similarity	Discovery
1	OMC	prime	84	95
2	GFL	prime	83.95	95
3	CNQ	prime	83.9	95
4	WWD	prime	83.9	95
5	CBRE	prime	83.85	95
6	DAR	prime	83.8	95
7	ELV	prime	83.8	95
8	NWSA	prime	83.75	95
9	PSX	prime	83.75	95
10	RBC	prime	83.75	95

Strategy outcome: $87.30 across 8/10 fresh day(s).
Right days: 7. Wrong days: 1.
Latest Winner-Like day 2026-06-08: GFL, CBRE with $13.50 outcome.
Winner-Like shadow basket 2026-06-08: GFL, CBRE.
Official entered paper basket 2026-06-08: AIR.

Still Missing

2 more fresh day(s) needed

Daily Ledger

Date	Symbols	Outcome	Direction	Detail
2026-06-05	BJ	$2.60	right	trade BJ 09:35 @ $89.14 -> 11:30 @ $89.60 = $2.60 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 384 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $89.14 Exit 11:30 $89.60 +0.52% entry 09:35 $89.14 high after entry 10:01 $90.52 +1.55% low after entry 15:49 $89.01 -0.15% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $89.60 +0.52% 09:58 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.50% - target +1.50% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.63% - protected floor +0.85% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.58% - protected floor +0.85% 10:17 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.34% - protected floor +0.85% 10:18 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.34% - protected floor +0.85% 10:19 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.07% - protected floor +0.85% 10:20 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.28% - protected floor +0.85% 10:21 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.09% - protected floor +0.85%
2026-06-05	RBC	$4.60	right	trade RBC 09:35 @ $586.06 -> 15:50 @ $591.44 = $4.60 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; time-closeout) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 229 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $586.06 Exit 15:50 $591.44 +0.92% entry 09:35 $586.06 high after entry 11:00 $594.65 +1.47% low after entry 09:43 $582.73 -0.57% exit: time-closeout 15:50 $591.44 +0.92%
2026-06-04	GS	$16.50	right	trade GS 09:35 @ $1052.56 -> 13:11 @ $1087.28 = $16.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 381 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $1052.56 Exit 13:11 $1087.28 +3.30% entry 09:35 $1052.56 high after entry 12:58 $1095.90 +4.12% low after entry 09:35 $1052.15 -0.04% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 13:11 $1087.28 +3.30% 10:05 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.53% - target +1.50%
2026-06-04	NUE	$13.85	right	trade NUE 09:35 @ $255.57 -> 12:55 @ $262.64 = $13.85 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 352 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $255.57 Exit 12:55 $262.64 +2.77% entry 09:35 $255.57 high after entry 11:15 $264.67 +3.56% low after entry 09:35 $255.53 -0.02% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:55 $262.64 +2.77% 09:58 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.54% - target +1.50%
2026-06-03	HSTM	-$4.50	wrong	trade HSTM 09:36 @ $25.08 -> 10:08 @ $24.85 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 146 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:36 $25.08 Exit 10:08 $24.85 -0.90% entry 09:36 $25.08 high after entry 09:42 $25.20 +0.50% low after entry 15:23 $24.30 -3.11% exit: stop-loss 10:08 $24.85 -0.90%
2026-06-03	JJSF	-$4.50	wrong	trade JJSF 09:36 @ $75.52 -> 10:10 @ $74.84 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 221 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:36 $75.52 Exit 10:10 $74.84 -0.90% entry 09:36 $75.52 high after entry 09:49 $76.71 +1.58% low after entry 10:19 $74.61 -1.20% exit: stop-loss 10:10 $74.84 -0.90% 09:49 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.58% - target +1.50% 09:57 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.87% - protected floor +0.88% 09:58 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.49% - protected floor +0.88% 10:00 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.69% - protected floor +0.88% 10:01 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.68% - protected floor +0.88% 10:02 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.46% - protected floor +0.88% 10:05 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.30% - protected floor +0.88% 10:06 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.40% - protected floor +0.88%
2026-06-02	DD	$8.85	right	trade DD 09:35 @ $48.13 -> 11:37 @ $48.98 = $8.85 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 387 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $48.13 Exit 11:37 $48.98 +1.77% entry 09:35 $48.13 high after entry 11:07 $49.34 +2.51% low after entry 09:35 $48.13 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:37 $48.98 +1.77% 10:44 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.59% - target +1.50%
2026-06-01	ISRG	$4.70	right	trade ISRG 09:35 @ $416.19 -> 11:30 @ $420.12 = $4.70 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $416.19 Exit 11:30 $420.12 +0.94% entry 09:35 $416.19 high after entry 09:56 $423.95 +1.86% low after entry 15:41 $411.83 -1.05% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $420.12 +0.94% 09:53 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.58% - target +1.50% 10:06 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.10% - protected floor +1.16% 10:07 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.16% 10:08 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.99% - protected floor +1.16% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.98% - protected floor +1.16% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.04% - protected floor +1.16% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.00% - protected floor +1.16% 10:12 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.16%
2026-06-01	UBER	$14.75	right	trade UBER 09:35 @ $71.59 -> 12:06 @ $73.70 = $14.75 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $71.59 Exit 12:06 $73.70 +2.95% entry 09:35 $71.59 high after entry 13:49 $74.56 +4.14% low after entry 09:35 $71.38 -0.29% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:06 $73.70 +2.95% 09:59 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.75% - target +1.50% 10:07 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.95% - protected floor +1.05% 10:08 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.85% - protected floor +1.05% 10:13 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.03% - protected floor +1.05% 10:22 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.05% 10:23 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.87% - protected floor +1.05% 10:24 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.68% - protected floor +1.05% 10:25 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.72% - protected floor +1.05%
2026-05-29	DE	$5.50	right	trade DE 09:35 @ $537.04 -> 15:50 @ $542.93 = $5.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 382 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $537.04 Exit 15:50 $542.93 +1.10% entry 09:35 $537.04 high after entry 15:09 $546.98 +1.85% low after entry 09:35 $537.04 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 15:50 $542.93 +1.10% 11:44 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.57% - target +1.50%
2026-05-29	UBER	$8.10	right	trade UBER 09:35 @ $70.47 -> 12:17 @ $71.61 = $8.10 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 392 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $70.47 Exit 12:17 $71.61 +1.62% entry 09:35 $70.47 high after entry 13:52 $72.24 +2.51% low after entry 15:55 $69.96 -0.72% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:17 $71.61 +1.62% 11:05 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.53% - target +1.50%
2026-05-28	ADBE	$5.05	right	trade ADBE 09:35 @ $237.51 -> 11:30 @ $239.91 = $5.05 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-incremental-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $237.51 Exit 11:30 $239.91 +1.01% entry 09:35 $237.51 high after entry 10:05 $244.76 +3.05% low after entry 09:35 $236.66 -0.36% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $239.91 +1.01% 09:46 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.55% - target +1.50% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.27% - protected floor +2.35% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.10% - protected floor +2.35% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.01% - protected floor +2.35% 10:12 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.13% - protected floor +2.35% 10:14 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.23% - protected floor +2.35% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.29% - protected floor +2.35% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.14% - protected floor +2.35%
2026-05-28	EFX	$7.10	right	trade EFX 09:35 @ $162.15 -> 14:16 @ $164.45 = $7.10 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 345 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $162.15 Exit 14:16 $164.45 +1.42% entry 09:35 $162.15 high after entry 11:50 $165.78 +2.24% low after entry 09:35 $162.15 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 14:16 $164.45 +1.42% 09:42 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.50% - target +1.50% 10:08 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.09% - protected floor +1.19% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.88% - protected floor +1.19% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.84% - protected floor +1.19% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.75% - protected floor +1.19% 10:12 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.14% - protected floor +1.19% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.19% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.88% - protected floor +1.19%
2026-05-27	PFGC	$9.20	right	trade PFGC 09:35 @ $94.47 -> 11:56 @ $96.21 = $9.20 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 365 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $94.47 Exit 11:56 $96.21 +1.84% entry 09:35 $94.47 high after entry 15:35 $97.05 +2.73% low after entry 09:40 $94.19 -0.30% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:56 $96.21 +1.84% 10:00 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.82% - target +1.50% 10:38 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.48% - protected floor +1.51% 10:40 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.45% - protected floor +1.51% 10:41 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.42% - protected floor +1.51% 10:42 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.41% - protected floor +1.51% 10:43 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.35% - protected floor +1.51% 10:44 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.33% - protected floor +1.51% 10:46 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.42% - protected floor +1.51%
2026-05-27	SOLV	-$4.50	wrong	trade SOLV 09:35 @ $76.89 -> 15:03 @ $76.20 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 379 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $76.89 Exit 15:03 $76.20 -0.90% entry 09:35 $76.89 high after entry 13:36 $77.82 +1.21% low after entry 15:49 $75.74 -1.49% exit: stop-loss 15:03 $76.20 -0.90%

Idea

Best Single vs Basket promotion-review

Strategy Research | basket selection

Measured Edge

$23.10

Fresh days 18/10 | Affected 10

Current State

promotion-review-candidate

Open Strategy/Risk/QA promotion review; continue tracking out-of-sample days and do not change live paper behavior.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/selection-quality/proactive-growth-shadow-evaluation.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the best-single shadow outcome beats the actual basket outcome in dollars.

Best-single shadow beat the basket by enough to request a promotion review.
Current measured edge: $23.10.
Fresh days: 18/10. Affected cases: 10.
Strategy Research, Risk/Truthfulness, QA, and explicit Board/user gates support the bounded paper-only pre-entry singleton selector; ex-post best-single, broker/order, real-money, scoring, entry timing, exit logic, alerts, and pool-generation changes remain forbidden.
Basket total -$17.86 vs best single $5.24 over 22 day(s).
Promotion gate: Strategy Research, Risk/Truthfulness, QA, and explicit Board/user approval passed for the bounded paper-only pre-entry singleton selector; continue auditing each affected paper basket.

Daily Ledger

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-05-12	-$1.04	-$1.04	$0.00	flat	Best PAG; basket PAG; trade PAG 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $170.51 -> historical closeout candle 2026-05-12T19:50:00.000Z @ $169.80 = -$1.04 (-0.42%; stale; score 85; Historical candle replay closeout used because target/stop was not reached.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-05-13	$3.13	$2.50	-$0.63	wrong	Best CBOE; basket VIRT, STT, CBOE; trade CBOE 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $353.81 -> historical target candle 2026-05-13T14:03:00.000Z @ $357.35 = $2.50 (+1.00%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Historical candle replay target reached: 357.35 (1% above entry).)
2026-05-14	-$3.13	-$0.50	$2.63	right	Best UDR; basket UDR, CBOE, COHU; trade UDR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $37.41 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:49:00.000Z @ $37.33 = -$0.50 (-0.20%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-15	$3.39	$3.74	$0.35	right	Best ARMK; basket AXSM, ARMK, BEN; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.39 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T17:59:44.000Z @ $53.17 = $3.74 (+1.50%; fresh-live-like; score 85; Paper profit target reached: 1.5% >= 1.5%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Profit is available after the preferred midday review window.)
2026-05-18	$5.26	$2.32	-$2.94	wrong	Best OVV; basket WTTR, COST, OVV; trade OVV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $59.26 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:47.000Z @ $59.81 = $2.32 (+0.93%; fresh-live-like; score 81; Good-enough pre-midday paper profit is available: 0.93% >= 0.8%. Morning gain pulled back from the high: high-water 1.35%, pullback 0.42%.)
2026-05-19	-$3.79	-$0.91	$2.88	right	Best ARMK; basket BEN, ARMK, CACC; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.17 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T19:49:00.000Z @ $51.98 = -$0.91 (-0.36%; fresh-live-like; score 83; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-20	$2.66	$2.39	-$0.27	wrong	Best BEN; basket BEN, ARMK; trade BEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $30.85 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-20T19:45:01.000Z @ $31.14 = $2.39 (+0.96%; fresh-live-like; score 88; Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-21	$3.59	$3.59	$0.00	flat	Best ARMK; basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $50.90 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-21T19:50:23.000Z @ $51.63 = $3.59 (+1.44%; fresh-live-like; score 87; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.16% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-05-22	$5.06	$5.06	$0.00	flat	Best AXSM; basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.61 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-22T19:44:50.000Z @ $235.97 = $5.06 (+1.01%; fresh-live-like; score 87; TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-05-26	$0.83	$0.83	$0.00	flat	Best AXSM; basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.70 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-26T19:50:13.000Z @ $234.09 = $0.83 (+0.17%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.08% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Paper runner protected floor reached: 0.17% <= 0.8%; capture the protected gain. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-05-27	-$0.35	$4.16	$4.51	right	Best AXSM; basket AXSM, DKS; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.29 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-27T19:50:23.000Z @ $235.23 = $4.16 (+0.83%; fresh-live-like; score 90; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-28	-$8.98	-$4.48	$4.50	right	Best ARMK; basket ARMK, AMAT; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.00 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-28T13:58:15.000Z @ $52.52 = -$4.48 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.)
2026-05-29	-$0.30	-$0.30	$0.00	flat	Best ARMK; basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.57 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-29T19:45:07.000Z @ $53.54 = -$0.30 (-0.06%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-01	-$3.14	$2.94	$6.08	right	Best ARMK; basket ARMK, APH, ATEN; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.58 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-01T19:45:22.000Z @ $54.05 = $2.94 (+0.88%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 1.53% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Candle-shape signal is a long-only caution: strong-bearish-body (bearish-caution). Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-06-02	-$4.53	-$4.53	$0.00	flat	Best ARMK; basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $54.08 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-02T14:25:56.000Z @ $53.59 = -$4.53 (-0.91%; fresh-live-like; score 93; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.91% <= -0.9%. SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-03	-$3.12	$2.87	$5.99	right	Best ADM; basket ARMK, ACIW, ADM; trade ADM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $83.38 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-03T19:45:23.000Z @ $84.10 = $2.87 (+0.86%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.39% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-06-04	-$4.50	-$4.50	$0.00	flat	Best AVT; basket AVT; trade AVT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $90.65 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-04T14:02:14.000Z @ $89.83 = -$4.50 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: hammer (bullish-watch). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-05	-$4.46	-$4.46	$0.00	flat	Best ALV; basket ALV; trade ALV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $128.77 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-05T15:12:53.000Z @ $127.61 = -$4.46 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 89; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome

Idea

Momentum Over Reversal Tiebreak keep-testing

Strategy Research | candidate ranking

Measured Edge

$3.84

Fresh days 18/10 | Affected 4

Current State

early-evidence

Continue fresh-day tracking and require out-of-sample confirmation before promotion.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/selection-quality/proactive-growth-shadow-evaluation.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the momentum-filtered shadow basket beats the actual basket outcome in dollars on a day where the filter applies.

Setup samples are large enough to compare, but promotion still depends on shadow P&L improvement.
Current measured edge: $3.84.
Fresh days: 18/10. Affected cases: 4.
Current-gate information is present; continue the named next action.
Momentum samples 50, reversal samples 9, historical status promotion-review-possible.
Evidence gate: At least 30 samples in each setup group or repeated out-of-sample live confirmation.

Still Missing

1 more affected case(s)

Daily Ledger

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-05-12	-$1.04			not-applicable	Basket PAG; trade PAG 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $170.51 -> historical closeout candle 2026-05-12T19:50:00.000Z @ $169.80 = -$1.04 (-0.42%; stale; score 85; Historical candle replay closeout used because target/stop was not reached.)
2026-05-13	$3.13			not-applicable	Basket VIRT, STT, CBOE; trade VIRT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $51.65 -> historical stop candle 2026-05-13T13:36:00.000Z @ $51.27 = -$1.86 (-0.74%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Historical candle replay stop reached: 51.27 (0.75% below entry).); trade STT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $149.44 -> historical target candle 2026-05-13T13:49:00.000Z @ $150.93 = $2.49 (+1.00%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Historical candle replay target reached: 150.93 (1% above entry).); trade CBOE 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $353.81 -> historical target candle 2026-05-13T14:03:00.000Z @ $357.35 = $2.50 (+1.00%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Historical candle replay target reached: 357.35 (1% above entry).)
2026-05-14	-$3.13			not-applicable	Basket UDR, CBOE, COHU; trade UDR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $37.41 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:49:00.000Z @ $37.33 = -$0.50 (-0.20%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); trade CBOE 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $365.23 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:45:01.000Z @ $362.49 = -$1.87 (-0.75%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.75% <= -0.75%. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); trade COHU 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $49.24 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:49:00.000Z @ $49.09 = -$0.76 (-0.30%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-15	$3.39	$4.13	$0.74	right	Shadow ARMK, BEN from basket AXSM, ARMK, BEN; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.39 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T17:59:44.000Z @ $53.17 = $3.74 (+1.50%; fresh-live-like; score 85; Paper profit target reached: 1.5% >= 1.5%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Profit is available after the preferred midday review window.); trade BEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $31.86 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T19:50:14.000Z @ $31.91 = $0.39 (+0.16%; fresh-live-like; score 85; Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-18	$5.26			not-applicable	Basket WTTR, COST, OVV; trade WTTR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $19.15 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:16.000Z @ $19.23 = $1.11 (+0.44%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Pre-midday paper profit is available for review: 0.44% >= 0.4%. Morning gain pulled back from the high: high-water 0.91%, pullback 0.47%.); trade COST 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $1053.39 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:51.000Z @ $1061.11 = $1.83 (+0.73%; fresh-live-like; score 81; Pre-midday paper profit is available for review: 0.73% >= 0.4%. Morning gain pulled back from the high: high-water 1.25%, pullback 0.51%.); trade OVV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $59.26 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:47.000Z @ $59.81 = $2.32 (+0.93%; fresh-live-like; score 81; Good-enough pre-midday paper profit is available: 0.93% >= 0.8%. Morning gain pulled back from the high: high-water 1.35%, pullback 0.42%.)
2026-05-19	-$3.79			not-applicable	Basket BEN, ARMK, CACC; trade BEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $31.55 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T15:25:59.000Z @ $31.31 = -$1.90 (-0.76%; fresh-live-like; score 84; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.76% <= -0.75%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off.); trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.17 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T19:49:00.000Z @ $51.98 = -$0.91 (-0.36%; fresh-live-like; score 83; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); trade CACC 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $550.00 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T19:49:12.000Z @ $547.84 = -$0.98 (-0.39%; fresh-live-like; score 83; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-20	$2.66			not-applicable	Basket BEN, ARMK; trade BEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $30.85 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-20T19:45:01.000Z @ $31.14 = $2.39 (+0.96%; fresh-live-like; score 88; Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $51.48 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-20T19:50:01.000Z @ $51.53 = $0.27 (+0.11%; fresh-live-like; score 87; TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-21	$3.59			not-applicable	Basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $50.90 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-21T19:50:23.000Z @ $51.63 = $3.59 (+1.44%; fresh-live-like; score 87; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.16% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-22	$5.06			not-applicable	Basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.61 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-22T19:44:50.000Z @ $235.97 = $5.06 (+1.01%; fresh-live-like; score 87; TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-26	$0.83			not-applicable	Basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.70 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-26T19:50:13.000Z @ $234.09 = $0.83 (+0.17%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.08% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Paper runner protected floor reached: 0.17% <= 0.8%; capture the protected gain. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-27	-$0.35			not-applicable	Basket AXSM, DKS; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.29 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-27T19:50:23.000Z @ $235.23 = $4.16 (+0.83%; fresh-live-like; score 90; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); trade DKS 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $225.24 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-27T18:44:37.000Z @ $223.21 = -$4.51 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 89; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 3.62% with next target 4.5% and protected exit floor 2.8%. Paper runner protected floor was lost and current P&L is no longer positive (-0.9% <= 2.8%). Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.)
2026-05-28	-$8.98			not-applicable	Basket ARMK, AMAT; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.00 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-28T13:58:15.000Z @ $52.52 = -$4.48 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.); trade AMAT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $445.35 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-28T13:48:50.000Z @ $441.34 = -$4.50 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 91; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.)
2026-05-29	-$0.30			not-applicable	Basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.57 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-29T19:45:07.000Z @ $53.54 = -$0.30 (-0.06%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-06-01	-$3.14	-$3.01	$0.13	right	Shadow APH from basket ARMK, APH, ATEN; trade APH 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $147.10 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-01T13:58:18.000Z @ $145.78 = -$3.01 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 88; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support).)
2026-06-02	-$4.53			not-applicable	Basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $54.08 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-02T14:25:56.000Z @ $53.59 = -$4.53 (-0.91%; fresh-live-like; score 93; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.91% <= -0.9%. SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.)
2026-06-03	-$3.12	-$0.15	$2.97	right	Shadow ACIW, ADM from basket ARMK, ACIW, ADM; trade ACIW 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $42.48 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-03T13:54:04.000Z @ $42.09 = -$3.02 (-0.91%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.18% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Paper runner protected floor was breached before 11:30 ET (-0.91% <= 0.8%), so this is review-only unless a stop-loss or closeout rule fires. Paper stop threshold reached: -0.91% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.); trade ADM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $83.38 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-03T19:45:23.000Z @ $84.10 = $2.87 (+0.86%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.39% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-06-04	-$4.50			not-applicable	Basket AVT; trade AVT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $90.65 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-04T14:02:14.000Z @ $89.83 = -$4.50 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: hammer (bullish-watch). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.)
2026-06-05	-$4.46			not-applicable	Basket ALV; trade ALV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $128.77 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-05T15:12:53.000Z @ $127.61 = -$4.46 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 89; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off.)

Idea

Neutral Candle Size Discount keep-testing

Paper Trading Operations | position sizing

Measured Edge

$0.60

Fresh days 18/10 | Affected 13

Current State

medium-positive

Continue fresh-day tracking and require out-of-sample confirmation before promotion.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/selection-quality/proactive-growth-shadow-evaluation.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when reducing neutral/no-pattern legs to half size improves the actual basket outcome in dollars.

Neutral/no-pattern trades are not currently a proven loss source, so size discount remains observe-only.
Current measured edge: $0.60.
Fresh days: 18/10. Affected cases: 13.
Current-gate information is present; continue the named next action.
Neutral/no-pattern group 18; estimated half-size outcome -$0.60.
Evidence gate: At least 20 neutral/no-pattern samples plus command-center QA after any live scoring change.

Daily Ledger

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-05-12	-$1.04			not-applicable	Basket PAG; trade PAG 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $170.51 -> historical closeout candle 2026-05-12T19:50:00.000Z @ $169.80 = -$1.04 (-0.42%; stale; score 85; Historical candle replay closeout used because target/stop was not reached.)
2026-05-13	$3.13			not-applicable	Basket VIRT, STT, CBOE; trade VIRT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $51.65 -> historical stop candle 2026-05-13T13:36:00.000Z @ $51.27 = -$1.86 (-0.74%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Historical candle replay stop reached: 51.27 (0.75% below entry).); trade STT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $149.44 -> historical target candle 2026-05-13T13:49:00.000Z @ $150.93 = $2.49 (+1.00%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Historical candle replay target reached: 150.93 (1% above entry).); trade CBOE 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $353.81 -> historical target candle 2026-05-13T14:03:00.000Z @ $357.35 = $2.50 (+1.00%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Historical candle replay target reached: 357.35 (1% above entry).)
2026-05-14	-$3.13	-$1.56	$1.57	right	Neutral UDR, CBOE, COHU half-size; trade UDR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $37.41 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:49:00.000Z @ $37.33 = -$0.50 (-0.20%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); trade CBOE 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $365.23 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:45:01.000Z @ $362.49 = -$1.87 (-0.75%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.75% <= -0.75%. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); trade COHU 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $49.24 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:49:00.000Z @ $49.09 = -$0.76 (-0.30%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-15	$3.39			not-applicable	Basket AXSM, ARMK, BEN; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $228.33 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T19:50:10.000Z @ $227.65 = -$0.74 (-0.30%; fresh-live-like; score 86; Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.39 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T17:59:44.000Z @ $53.17 = $3.74 (+1.50%; fresh-live-like; score 85; Paper profit target reached: 1.5% >= 1.5%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Profit is available after the preferred midday review window.); trade BEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $31.86 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T19:50:14.000Z @ $31.91 = $0.39 (+0.16%; fresh-live-like; score 85; Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-18	$5.26	$2.63	-$2.63	wrong	Neutral WTTR, COST, OVV half-size; trade WTTR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $19.15 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:16.000Z @ $19.23 = $1.11 (+0.44%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Pre-midday paper profit is available for review: 0.44% >= 0.4%. Morning gain pulled back from the high: high-water 0.91%, pullback 0.47%.); trade COST 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $1053.39 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:51.000Z @ $1061.11 = $1.83 (+0.73%; fresh-live-like; score 81; Pre-midday paper profit is available for review: 0.73% >= 0.4%. Morning gain pulled back from the high: high-water 1.25%, pullback 0.51%.); trade OVV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $59.26 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:47.000Z @ $59.81 = $2.32 (+0.93%; fresh-live-like; score 81; Good-enough pre-midday paper profit is available: 0.93% >= 0.8%. Morning gain pulled back from the high: high-water 1.35%, pullback 0.42%.)
2026-05-19	-$3.79	-$2.84	$0.95	right	Neutral ARMK, CACC half-size; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.17 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T19:49:00.000Z @ $51.98 = -$0.91 (-0.36%; fresh-live-like; score 83; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); trade CACC 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $550.00 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T19:49:12.000Z @ $547.84 = -$0.98 (-0.39%; fresh-live-like; score 83; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-20	$2.66	$2.53	-$0.13	wrong	Neutral ARMK half-size; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $51.48 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-20T19:50:01.000Z @ $51.53 = $0.27 (+0.11%; fresh-live-like; score 87; TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-21	$3.59	$1.80	-$1.79	wrong	Neutral ARMK half-size; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $50.90 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-21T19:50:23.000Z @ $51.63 = $3.59 (+1.44%; fresh-live-like; score 87; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.16% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-22	$5.06	$2.53	-$2.53	wrong	Neutral AXSM half-size; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.61 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-22T19:44:50.000Z @ $235.97 = $5.06 (+1.01%; fresh-live-like; score 87; TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-26	$0.83	$0.42	-$0.41	wrong	Neutral AXSM half-size; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.70 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-26T19:50:13.000Z @ $234.09 = $0.83 (+0.17%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.08% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Paper runner protected floor reached: 0.17% <= 0.8%; capture the protected gain. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-27	-$0.35	-$2.43	-$2.08	wrong	Neutral AXSM half-size; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.29 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-27T19:50:23.000Z @ $235.23 = $4.16 (+0.83%; fresh-live-like; score 90; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-28	-$8.98	-$6.74	$2.24	right	Neutral ARMK half-size; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.00 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-28T13:58:15.000Z @ $52.52 = -$4.48 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.)
2026-05-29	-$0.30	-$0.15	$0.15	right	Neutral ARMK half-size; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.57 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-29T19:45:07.000Z @ $53.54 = -$0.30 (-0.06%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-06-01	-$3.14	-$1.61	$1.53	right	Neutral ATEN half-size; trade ATEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $30.58 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-01T13:57:58.000Z @ $30.30 = -$3.07 (-0.92%; fresh-live-like; score 88; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.92% <= -0.9%.)
2026-06-02	-$4.53	-$2.26	$2.27	right	Neutral ARMK half-size; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $54.08 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-02T14:25:56.000Z @ $53.59 = -$4.53 (-0.91%; fresh-live-like; score 93; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.91% <= -0.9%. SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.)
2026-06-03	-$3.12	-$1.63	$1.49	right	Neutral ARMK half-size; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.88 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-03T19:45:16.000Z @ $53.40 = -$2.97 (-0.89%; fresh-live-like; score 91; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-06-04	-$4.50			not-applicable	Basket AVT; trade AVT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $90.65 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-04T14:02:14.000Z @ $89.83 = -$4.50 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: hammer (bullish-watch). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.)
2026-06-05	-$4.46			not-applicable	Basket ALV; trade ALV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $128.77 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-05T15:12:53.000Z @ $127.61 = -$4.46 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 89; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off.)

Idea

Adaptive Exit Replay keep-testing

Paper Trading Operations | exit behavior

Measured Edge

Fresh days 1/10 | Affected 1

Current State

early-evidence

Continue collecting fresh checkpoint packets and run variant-by-variant full-day exit replay after each closed paper day.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/timing-evidence/latest-timing-quality.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: blocked-no-deterministic-variant-outcomes

Judging rule: Not yet appropriate for a daily judged ledger because the variant-by-variant shadow exits are not durably written per day yet.

Checkpoint evidence exists and passes timing QA, but one day of exit evidence is not enough to promote adaptive exits.
Current measured edge: .
Fresh days: 1/10. Affected cases: 1.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.
Checkpoint packets 64; best historical variant preMiddayProfitProtect.
Evidence gate: Variant must improve drawdown-adjusted paper result across fresh checkpoint packets and pass no-future-leakage QA.

Still Missing

9 more fresh/live-like day(s)
4 more affected case(s)
deterministic improvement metric

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

Wide-To-Narrow Runner Ladder promotion-review

Paper Trading Operations | exit behavior

Measured Edge

$1396.63

Fresh days 10/10 | Affected 4943

Current State

promotion-review-candidate

Open Strategy/Risk/QA promotion review; continue tracking out-of-sample days and do not change live paper behavior.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/wide-to-narrow-runner-ladder-existing-cache-study/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the wide-to-narrow exit ladder beats the fixed ladder in dollars across the same-day replay set.

Latest wide-to-narrow runner ladder existing-cache-multi-date-study helped the fixed ladder by $1396.63 across 4943 affected case(s); promote to a controlled full-study review, not to live paper behavior.
Current measured edge: $1396.63.
Fresh days: 10/10. Affected cases: 4943.
Controlled promotion review may proceed from the durable gate packet, but behavior remains observe-only.
Evidence gate: At least 10 fresh/live-like paper days, at least 5 affected runner cases, positive drawdown-adjusted improvement, no-future-leakage QA, and Risk/Truthfulness review before any live paper exit change.

Still Missing

Strategy Research review
Risk/Truthfulness no-cherry-picking review
QA no-future-leakage review
explicit Board/user approval before live paper behavior changes

Daily Ledger

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-06-05	-$92.23	-$88.91	$3.32	right	3 affected case(s), 2 improved, 1 worsened.
2026-06-04	$251.89	$247.18	-$4.71	wrong	3 affected case(s), 1 improved, 2 worsened.
2026-06-03	-$75.63	-$70.45	$5.18	right	3 affected case(s), 3 improved, 0 worsened.
2026-06-02	$181.39	$184.54	$3.15	right	9 affected case(s), 6 improved, 3 worsened.
2026-06-01	-$22.68	-$15.98	$6.70	right	7 affected case(s), 5 improved, 2 worsened.
2026-05-29	-$61.72	-$56.62	$5.10	right	3 affected case(s), 3 improved, 0 worsened.
2026-05-28	-$48.07	-$43.77	$4.30	right	3 affected case(s), 2 improved, 1 worsened.
2026-05-27	-$95.74	-$92.60	$3.14	right	4 affected case(s), 3 improved, 1 worsened.
2026-05-26	$1.82	$0.42	-$1.40	wrong	5 affected case(s), 2 improved, 3 worsened.
2026-05-22	-$29.59	-$17.29	$12.30	right	5 affected case(s), 5 improved, 0 worsened.

Idea

Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation keep-testing

Market Discovery | candidate discovery

Measured Edge

Fresh days 8/10 | Affected 8

Current State

early-evidence

Continue side-by-side full-day replay until 10 fresh days and at least 5 affected days are available.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/winner-like-early-confirmation-shadow-basket/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the winner-like shadow basket closes positive under the established main entry and exit logic.

AXSM-like universe scan is active as a shadow-only discovery cluster. The original-candidate replay and runner-vs-stop analysis can guide the next backtest features, but this remains single-day evidence and cannot change selection until out-of-sample replay proves value.
Current measured edge: .
Fresh days: 8/10. Affected cases: 8.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.
Evidence gate: Run the winner-like plus early-confirmation shadow basket side by side with the normal basket for 10 fresh/live-like out-of-sample market days, with at least 5 evaluated affected days and 5 paper points or 10% improvement before promotion review.

Still Missing

2 more fresh/live-like day(s)
deterministic improvement metric

Daily Ledger

Date	Shadow	Judgment	Detail
2026-06-05	$7.20	unknown	BJ 09:35 @ $89.14 -> 11:30 @ $89.60 = $2.60; RBC 09:35 @ $586.06 -> 15:50 @ $591.44 = $4.60
2026-06-04	$30.35	unknown	NUE 09:35 @ $255.57 -> 12:55 @ $262.64 = $13.85; GS 09:35 @ $1052.56 -> 13:11 @ $1087.28 = $16.50
2026-06-03	-$9.00	unknown	JJSF 09:36 @ $75.52 -> 10:10 @ $74.84 = -$4.50; HSTM 09:36 @ $25.08 -> 10:08 @ $24.85 = -$4.50
2026-06-02	$8.85	unknown	DD 09:35 @ $48.13 -> 11:37 @ $48.98 = $8.85
2026-06-01	$19.45	unknown	ISRG 09:35 @ $416.19 -> 11:30 @ $420.12 = $4.70; UBER 09:35 @ $71.59 -> 12:06 @ $73.70 = $14.75
2026-05-29	$13.60	unknown	DE 09:35 @ $537.04 -> 15:50 @ $542.93 = $5.50; UBER 09:35 @ $70.47 -> 12:17 @ $71.61 = $8.10
2026-05-28	$12.15	unknown	EFX 09:35 @ $162.15 -> 14:16 @ $164.45 = $7.10; ADBE 09:35 @ $237.51 -> 11:30 @ $239.91 = $5.05
2026-05-27	$4.70	unknown	PFGC 09:35 @ $94.47 -> 11:56 @ $96.21 = $9.20; SOLV 09:35 @ $76.89 -> 15:03 @ $76.20 = -$4.50

Shadow Idea Scoreboard and Daily Ledgers

Shadow Scoreboard

Idea Detail

Today

Winner-Like Shadow Basket

Entered Paper Basket

Pre-Confirmation Roster

Still Missing

Daily Ledger

Daily Ledger

Still Missing

Daily Ledger

Daily Ledger

Still Missing

Evidence

Still Missing

Daily Ledger

Still Missing

Daily Ledger