Shadow Idea Scoreboard and Daily Ledgers

Idea	Status	Owner	Edge	Fresh Days	Affected	Data	Next Action
Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation	keep-testing	Strategy Research + Paper Trading Operations	$87.30	8/10	8	daily ledger ready	Continue collecting fresh winner-like shadow days without mutating the official paper logic.
Best Single vs Basket	promotion-review	Strategy Research	$23.10	17/10	10	daily ledger ready	Open Strategy/Risk/QA promotion review; continue tracking out-of-sample days and do not change live paper behavior.
Momentum Over Reversal Tiebreak	keep-testing	Strategy Research	$3.84	17/10	3	daily ledger ready	Continue fresh-day tracking and require out-of-sample confirmation before promotion.
Neutral Candle Size Discount	keep-testing	Paper Trading Operations	$0.60	17/10	13	daily ledger ready	Continue fresh-day tracking and require out-of-sample confirmation before promotion.
Adaptive Exit Replay	keep-testing	Paper Trading Operations	$0.00	1/10	1	needs extra data	Continue collecting fresh checkpoint packets and run variant-by-variant full-day exit replay after each closed paper day.
Wide-To-Narrow Runner Ladder	promotion-review	Paper Trading Operations	$1396.63	10/10	4943	daily ledger ready	Open Strategy/Risk/QA promotion review; continue tracking out-of-sample days and do not change live paper behavior.
Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation	keep-testing	Market Discovery	$0.00	8/10	8	daily ledger ready	Continue side-by-side full-day replay until 10 fresh days and at least 5 affected days are available.

Idea

Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation keep-testing

Strategy Research + Paper Trading Operations | daily shadow selection

Measured Edge

$87.30

Fresh days 8/10 | Affected 8

Current State

blocked-no-winner-like-candidate-source

Continue collecting fresh winner-like shadow days without mutating the official paper logic.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/winner-like-early-confirmation-shadow-basket/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: winner-like-day-ledger

Strategy outcome: $87.30 across 8/10 fresh day(s).
Right days: 7. Wrong days: 1.
Latest captured day 2026-06-05: BJ, RBC with $7.20 outcome.

Still Missing

2 more fresh day(s) needed

Daily Ledger

Date	Direction	Detail
2026-06-05	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 384 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $89.14 Exit 11:30 $89.60 +0.52% entry 09:35 $89.14 high after entry 10:01 $90.52 +1.55% low after entry 15:49 $89.01 -0.15% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $89.60 +0.52% 09:58 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.50% - target +1.50% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.63% - protected floor +0.85% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.58% - protected floor +0.85% 10:17 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.34% - protected floor +0.85% 10:18 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.34% - protected floor +0.85% 10:19 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.07% - protected floor +0.85% 10:20 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.28% - protected floor +0.85% 10:21 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.09% - protected floor +0.85%
2026-06-05	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 229 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $586.06 Exit 15:50 $591.44 +0.92% entry 09:35 $586.06 high after entry 11:00 $594.65 +1.47% low after entry 09:43 $582.73 -0.57% exit: time-closeout 15:50 $591.44 +0.92%
2026-06-04	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 381 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $1052.56 Exit 13:11 $1087.28 +3.30% entry 09:35 $1052.56 high after entry 12:58 $1095.90 +4.12% low after entry 09:35 $1052.15 -0.04% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 13:11 $1087.28 +3.30% 10:05 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.53% - target +1.50%
2026-06-04	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 352 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $255.57 Exit 12:55 $262.64 +2.77% entry 09:35 $255.57 high after entry 11:15 $264.67 +3.56% low after entry 09:35 $255.53 -0.02% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:55 $262.64 +2.77% 09:58 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.54% - target +1.50%
2026-06-03	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 146 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:36 $25.08 Exit 10:08 $24.85 -0.90% entry 09:36 $25.08 high after entry 09:42 $25.20 +0.50% low after entry 15:23 $24.30 -3.11% exit: stop-loss 10:08 $24.85 -0.90%
2026-06-03	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 221 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:36 $75.52 Exit 10:10 $74.84 -0.90% entry 09:36 $75.52 high after entry 09:49 $76.71 +1.58% low after entry 10:19 $74.61 -1.20% exit: stop-loss 10:10 $74.84 -0.90% 09:49 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.58% - target +1.50% 09:57 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.87% - protected floor +0.88% 09:58 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.49% - protected floor +0.88% 10:00 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.69% - protected floor +0.88% 10:01 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.68% - protected floor +0.88% 10:02 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.46% - protected floor +0.88% 10:05 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.30% - protected floor +0.88% 10:06 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.40% - protected floor +0.88%
2026-06-02	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 387 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $48.13 Exit 11:37 $48.98 +1.77% entry 09:35 $48.13 high after entry 11:07 $49.34 +2.51% low after entry 09:35 $48.13 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:37 $48.98 +1.77% 10:44 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.59% - target +1.50%
2026-06-01	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $416.19 Exit 11:30 $420.12 +0.94% entry 09:35 $416.19 high after entry 09:56 $423.95 +1.86% low after entry 15:41 $411.83 -1.05% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $420.12 +0.94% 09:53 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.58% - target +1.50% 10:06 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.10% - protected floor +1.16% 10:07 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.16% 10:08 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.99% - protected floor +1.16% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.98% - protected floor +1.16% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.04% - protected floor +1.16% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.00% - protected floor +1.16% 10:12 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.16%
2026-06-01	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $71.59 Exit 12:06 $73.70 +2.95% entry 09:35 $71.59 high after entry 13:49 $74.56 +4.14% low after entry 09:35 $71.38 -0.29% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:06 $73.70 +2.95% 09:59 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.75% - target +1.50% 10:07 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.95% - protected floor +1.05% 10:08 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.85% - protected floor +1.05% 10:13 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.03% - protected floor +1.05% 10:22 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.05% 10:23 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.87% - protected floor +1.05% 10:24 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.68% - protected floor +1.05% 10:25 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.72% - protected floor +1.05%
2026-05-29	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 382 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $537.04 Exit 15:50 $542.93 +1.10% entry 09:35 $537.04 high after entry 15:09 $546.98 +1.85% low after entry 09:35 $537.04 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 15:50 $542.93 +1.10% 11:44 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.57% - target +1.50%
2026-05-29	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 392 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $70.47 Exit 12:17 $71.61 +1.62% entry 09:35 $70.47 high after entry 13:52 $72.24 +2.51% low after entry 15:55 $69.96 -0.72% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:17 $71.61 +1.62% 11:05 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.53% - target +1.50%
2026-05-28	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-incremental-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $237.51 Exit 11:30 $239.91 +1.01% entry 09:35 $237.51 high after entry 10:05 $244.76 +3.05% low after entry 09:35 $236.66 -0.36% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $239.91 +1.01% 09:46 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.55% - target +1.50% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.27% - protected floor +2.35% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.10% - protected floor +2.35% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.01% - protected floor +2.35% 10:12 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.13% - protected floor +2.35% 10:14 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.23% - protected floor +2.35% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.29% - protected floor +2.35% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.14% - protected floor +2.35%
2026-05-28	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 345 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $162.15 Exit 14:16 $164.45 +1.42% entry 09:35 $162.15 high after entry 11:50 $165.78 +2.24% low after entry 09:35 $162.15 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 14:16 $164.45 +1.42% 09:42 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.50% - target +1.50% 10:08 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.09% - protected floor +1.19% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.88% - protected floor +1.19% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.84% - protected floor +1.19% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.75% - protected floor +1.19% 10:12 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.14% - protected floor +1.19% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.19% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.88% - protected floor +1.19%
2026-05-27	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 365 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $94.47 Exit 11:56 $96.21 +1.84% entry 09:35 $94.47 high after entry 15:35 $97.05 +2.73% low after entry 09:40 $94.19 -0.30% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:56 $96.21 +1.84% 10:00 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.82% - target +1.50% 10:38 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.48% - protected floor +1.51% 10:40 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.45% - protected floor +1.51% 10:41 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.42% - protected floor +1.51% 10:42 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.41% - protected floor +1.51% 10:43 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.35% - protected floor +1.51% 10:44 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.33% - protected floor +1.51% 10:46 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.42% - protected floor +1.51%
2026-05-27	flat	Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 379 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $76.89 Exit 15:03 $76.20 -0.90% entry 09:35 $76.89 high after entry 13:36 $77.82 +1.21% low after entry 15:49 $75.74 -1.49% exit: stop-loss 15:03 $76.20 -0.90%

Idea

Best Single vs Basket promotion-review

Strategy Research | basket selection

Measured Edge

$23.10

Fresh days 17/10 | Affected 10

Current State

promotion-review-candidate

Open Strategy/Risk/QA promotion review; continue tracking out-of-sample days and do not change live paper behavior.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/selection-quality/proactive-growth-shadow-evaluation.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the best-single shadow outcome beats the actual basket outcome in dollars.

Best-single shadow beat the basket by enough to request a promotion review.
Current measured edge: $23.10.
Fresh days: 17/10. Affected cases: 10.
Strategy Research, Risk/Truthfulness, QA, and explicit Board/user gates support the bounded paper-only pre-entry singleton selector; ex-post best-single, broker/order, real-money, scoring, entry timing, exit logic, alerts, and pool-generation changes remain forbidden.
Basket total -$13.42 vs best single $9.68 over 20 day(s).
Promotion gate: Strategy Research, Risk/Truthfulness, QA, and explicit Board/user approval passed for the bounded paper-only pre-entry singleton selector; continue auditing each affected paper basket.

Daily Ledger

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-05-12	-$1.04	-$1.04	$0.00	flat	Best PAG; basket PAG; trade PAG 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $170.51 -> historical closeout candle 2026-05-12T19:50:00.000Z @ $169.80 = -$1.04
2026-05-13	$3.13	$2.50	-$0.63	wrong	Best CBOE; basket VIRT, STT, CBOE; trade CBOE 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $353.81 -> historical target candle 2026-05-13T14:03:00.000Z @ $357.35 = $2.50
2026-05-14	-$3.13	-$0.50	$2.63	right	Best UDR; basket UDR, CBOE, COHU; trade UDR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $37.41 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:49:00.000Z @ $37.33 = -$0.50
2026-05-15	$3.39	$3.74	$0.35	right	Best ARMK; basket AXSM, ARMK, BEN; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.39 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T17:59:44.000Z @ $53.17 = $3.74
2026-05-18	$5.26	$2.32	-$2.94	wrong	Best OVV; basket WTTR, COST, OVV; trade OVV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $59.26 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:47.000Z @ $59.81 = $2.32
2026-05-19	-$3.79	-$0.91	$2.88	right	Best ARMK; basket BEN, ARMK, CACC; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.17 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T19:49:00.000Z @ $51.98 = -$0.91
2026-05-20	$2.66	$2.39	-$0.27	wrong	Best BEN; basket BEN, ARMK; trade BEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $30.85 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-20T19:45:01.000Z @ $31.14 = $2.39
2026-05-21	$3.59	$3.59	$0.00	flat	Best ARMK; basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $50.90 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-21T19:50:23.000Z @ $51.63 = $3.59
2026-05-22	$5.06	$5.06	$0.00	flat	Best AXSM; basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.61 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-22T19:44:50.000Z @ $235.97 = $5.06
2026-05-26	$0.83	$0.83	$0.00	flat	Best AXSM; basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.70 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-26T19:50:13.000Z @ $234.09 = $0.83
2026-05-27	-$0.35	$4.16	$4.51	right	Best AXSM; basket AXSM, DKS; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.29 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-27T19:50:23.000Z @ $235.23 = $4.16
2026-05-28	-$8.98	-$4.48	$4.50	right	Best ARMK; basket ARMK, AMAT; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.00 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-28T13:58:15.000Z @ $52.52 = -$4.48
2026-05-29	-$0.30	-$0.30	$0.00	flat	Best ARMK; basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.57 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-29T19:45:07.000Z @ $53.54 = -$0.30
2026-06-01	-$3.14	$2.94	$6.08	right	Best ARMK; basket ARMK, APH, ATEN; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.58 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-01T19:45:22.000Z @ $54.05 = $2.94
2026-06-02	-$4.53	-$4.53	$0.00	flat	Best ARMK; basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $54.08 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-02T14:25:56.000Z @ $53.59 = -$4.53
2026-06-03	-$3.12	$2.87	$5.99	right	Best ADM; basket ARMK, ACIW, ADM; trade ADM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $83.38 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-03T19:45:23.000Z @ $84.10 = $2.87
2026-06-04	-$4.50	-$4.50	$0.00	flat	Best AVT; basket AVT; trade AVT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $90.65 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-04T14:02:14.000Z @ $89.83 = -$4.50
2026-06-05	-$4.46	-$4.46	$0.00	flat	Best ALV; basket ALV; trade ALV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $128.77 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-05T15:12:53.000Z @ $127.61 = -$4.46

Idea

Momentum Over Reversal Tiebreak keep-testing

Strategy Research | candidate ranking

Measured Edge

$3.84

Fresh days 17/10 | Affected 3

Current State

early-evidence

Continue fresh-day tracking and require out-of-sample confirmation before promotion.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/selection-quality/proactive-growth-shadow-evaluation.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the momentum-filtered shadow basket beats the actual basket outcome in dollars on a day where the filter applies.

Setup samples are large enough to compare, but promotion still depends on shadow P&L improvement.
Current measured edge: $3.84.
Fresh days: 17/10. Affected cases: 3.
Current-gate information is present; continue the named next action.
Momentum samples 50, reversal samples 9, historical status promotion-review-possible.
Evidence gate: At least 30 samples in each setup group or repeated out-of-sample live confirmation.

Still Missing

2 more affected case(s)

Daily Ledger

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-05-12	-$1.04	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	PAG
2026-05-13	$3.13	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	VIRT, STT, CBOE
2026-05-14	-$3.13	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	UDR, CBOE, COHU
2026-05-15	$3.39	$4.13	$0.74	right	Shadow ARMK, BEN from basket AXSM, ARMK, BEN; ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.39 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T17:59:44.000Z @ $53.17 = $3.74; BEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $31.86 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T19:50:14.000Z @ $31.91 = $0.39
2026-05-18	$5.26	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	WTTR, COST, OVV
2026-05-19	-$3.79	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	BEN, ARMK, CACC
2026-05-20	$2.66	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	BEN, ARMK
2026-05-21	$3.59	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	ARMK
2026-05-22	$5.06	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	AXSM
2026-05-26	$0.83	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	AXSM
2026-05-27	-$0.35	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	AXSM, DKS
2026-05-28	-$8.98	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	ARMK, AMAT
2026-05-29	-$0.30	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	ARMK
2026-06-01	-$3.14	-$3.01	$0.13	right	Shadow APH from basket ARMK, APH, ATEN; APH 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $147.10 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-01T13:58:18.000Z @ $145.78 = -$3.01
2026-06-02	-$4.53	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	ARMK
2026-06-03	-$3.12	-$0.15	$2.97	right	Shadow ACIW, ADM from basket ARMK, ACIW, ADM; ACIW 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $42.48 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-03T13:54:04.000Z @ $42.09 = -$3.02; ADM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $83.38 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-03T19:45:23.000Z @ $84.10 = $2.87
2026-06-04	-$4.50	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	AVT
2026-06-05	-$4.46	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	ALV

Idea

Neutral Candle Size Discount keep-testing

Paper Trading Operations | position sizing

Measured Edge

$0.60

Fresh days 17/10 | Affected 13

Current State

medium-positive

Continue fresh-day tracking and require out-of-sample confirmation before promotion.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/selection-quality/proactive-growth-shadow-evaluation.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when reducing neutral/no-pattern legs to half size improves the actual basket outcome in dollars.

Neutral/no-pattern trades are not currently a proven loss source, so size discount remains observe-only.
Current measured edge: $0.60.
Fresh days: 17/10. Affected cases: 13.
Current-gate information is present; continue the named next action.
Neutral/no-pattern group 18; estimated half-size outcome -$0.60.
Evidence gate: At least 20 neutral/no-pattern samples plus command-center QA after any live scoring change.

Daily Ledger

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-05-12	-$1.04	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	PAG
2026-05-13	$3.13	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	VIRT, STT, CBOE
2026-05-14	-$3.13	-$1.56	$1.57	right	Neutral UDR, CBOE, COHU half-size; UDR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $37.41 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:49:00.000Z @ $37.33 = -$0.50; CBOE 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $365.23 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:45:01.000Z @ $362.49 = -$1.87; COHU 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $49.24 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:49:00.000Z @ $49.09 = -$0.76
2026-05-15	$3.39	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	AXSM, ARMK, BEN
2026-05-18	$5.26	$2.63	-$2.63	wrong	Neutral WTTR, COST, OVV half-size; WTTR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $19.15 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:16.000Z @ $19.23 = $1.11; COST 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $1053.39 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:51.000Z @ $1061.11 = $1.83; OVV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $59.26 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:47.000Z @ $59.81 = $2.32
2026-05-19	-$3.79	-$2.84	$0.95	right	Neutral ARMK, CACC half-size; ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.17 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T19:49:00.000Z @ $51.98 = -$0.91; CACC 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $550.00 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T19:49:12.000Z @ $547.84 = -$0.98
2026-05-20	$2.66	$2.53	-$0.13	wrong	Neutral ARMK half-size; ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $51.48 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-20T19:50:01.000Z @ $51.53 = $0.27
2026-05-21	$3.59	$1.80	-$1.79	wrong	Neutral ARMK half-size; ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $50.90 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-21T19:50:23.000Z @ $51.63 = $3.59
2026-05-22	$5.06	$2.53	-$2.53	wrong	Neutral AXSM half-size; AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.61 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-22T19:44:50.000Z @ $235.97 = $5.06
2026-05-26	$0.83	$0.42	-$0.41	wrong	Neutral AXSM half-size; AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.70 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-26T19:50:13.000Z @ $234.09 = $0.83
2026-05-27	-$0.35	-$2.43	-$2.08	wrong	Neutral AXSM half-size; AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.29 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-27T19:50:23.000Z @ $235.23 = $4.16
2026-05-28	-$8.98	-$6.74	$2.24	right	Neutral ARMK half-size; ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.00 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-28T13:58:15.000Z @ $52.52 = -$4.48
2026-05-29	-$0.30	-$0.15	$0.15	right	Neutral ARMK half-size; ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.57 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-29T19:45:07.000Z @ $53.54 = -$0.30
2026-06-01	-$3.14	-$1.61	$1.53	right	Neutral ATEN half-size; ATEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $30.58 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-01T13:57:58.000Z @ $30.30 = -$3.07
2026-06-02	-$4.53	-$2.26	$2.27	right	Neutral ARMK half-size; ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $54.08 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-02T14:25:56.000Z @ $53.59 = -$4.53
2026-06-03	-$3.12	-$1.63	$1.49	right	Neutral ARMK half-size; ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.88 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-03T19:45:16.000Z @ $53.40 = -$2.97
2026-06-04	-$4.50	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	AVT
2026-06-05	-$4.46	$0.00	$0.00	not-applicable	ALV

Idea

Adaptive Exit Replay keep-testing

Paper Trading Operations | exit behavior

Measured Edge

$0.00

Fresh days 1/10 | Affected 1

Current State

early-evidence

Continue collecting fresh checkpoint packets and run variant-by-variant full-day exit replay after each closed paper day.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/timing-evidence/latest-timing-quality.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: blocked-no-deterministic-variant-outcomes

Judging rule: Not yet appropriate for a daily judged ledger because the variant-by-variant shadow exits are not durably written per day yet.

Checkpoint evidence exists and passes timing QA, but one day of exit evidence is not enough to promote adaptive exits.
Current measured edge: .
Fresh days: 1/10. Affected cases: 1.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.
Checkpoint packets 64; best historical variant preMiddayProfitProtect.
Evidence gate: Variant must improve drawdown-adjusted paper result across fresh checkpoint packets and pass no-future-leakage QA.

Still Missing

9 more fresh/live-like day(s)
4 more affected case(s)
deterministic improvement metric

Evidence Surface

This study does not have a durable daily pick ledger yet. Current evidence is aggregate-only and should not be mistaken for daily right-or-wrong proof.

Idea

Wide-To-Narrow Runner Ladder promotion-review

Paper Trading Operations | exit behavior

Measured Edge

$1396.63

Fresh days 10/10 | Affected 4943

Current State

promotion-review-candidate

Open Strategy/Risk/QA promotion review; continue tracking out-of-sample days and do not change live paper behavior.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/wide-to-narrow-runner-ladder-existing-cache-study/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the wide-to-narrow exit ladder beats the fixed ladder in dollars across the same-day replay set.

Latest wide-to-narrow runner ladder existing-cache-multi-date-study helped the fixed ladder by $1396.63 across 4943 affected case(s); promote to a controlled full-study review, not to live paper behavior.
Current measured edge: $1396.63.
Fresh days: 10/10. Affected cases: 4943.
Controlled promotion review may proceed from the durable gate packet, but behavior remains observe-only.
Evidence gate: At least 10 fresh/live-like paper days, at least 5 affected runner cases, positive drawdown-adjusted improvement, no-future-leakage QA, and Risk/Truthfulness review before any live paper exit change.

Still Missing

Strategy Research review
Risk/Truthfulness no-cherry-picking review
QA no-future-leakage review
explicit Board/user approval before live paper behavior changes

Daily Ledger

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-06-05	-$92.23	-$88.91	$3.32	right	3 affected case(s), 2 improved, 1 worsened.
2026-06-04	$251.89	$247.18	-$4.71	wrong	3 affected case(s), 1 improved, 2 worsened.
2026-06-03	-$75.63	-$70.45	$5.18	right	3 affected case(s), 3 improved, 0 worsened.
2026-06-02	$181.39	$184.54	$3.15	right	9 affected case(s), 6 improved, 3 worsened.
2026-06-01	-$22.68	-$15.98	$6.70	right	7 affected case(s), 5 improved, 2 worsened.
2026-05-29	-$61.72	-$56.62	$5.10	right	3 affected case(s), 3 improved, 0 worsened.
2026-05-28	-$48.07	-$43.77	$4.30	right	3 affected case(s), 2 improved, 1 worsened.
2026-05-27	-$95.74	-$92.60	$3.14	right	4 affected case(s), 3 improved, 1 worsened.
2026-05-26	$1.82	$0.42	-$1.40	wrong	5 affected case(s), 2 improved, 3 worsened.
2026-05-22	-$29.59	-$17.29	$12.30	right	5 affected case(s), 5 improved, 0 worsened.

Idea

Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation keep-testing

Market Discovery | candidate discovery

Measured Edge

$0.00

Fresh days 8/10 | Affected 8

Current State

early-evidence

Continue side-by-side full-day replay until 10 fresh days and at least 5 affected days are available.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/winner-like-early-confirmation-shadow-basket/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the winner-like shadow basket closes positive under the established main entry and exit logic.

AXSM-like universe scan is active as a shadow-only discovery cluster. The original-candidate replay and runner-vs-stop analysis can guide the next backtest features, but this remains single-day evidence and cannot change selection until out-of-sample replay proves value.
Current measured edge: .
Fresh days: 8/10. Affected cases: 8.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.
Evidence gate: Run the winner-like plus early-confirmation shadow basket side by side with the normal basket for 10 fresh/live-like out-of-sample market days, with at least 5 evaluated affected days and 5 paper points or 10% improvement before promotion review.

Still Missing

2 more fresh/live-like day(s)
deterministic improvement metric

Daily Ledger

Date	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-06-05	$0.00	$0.00	unknown	BJ 09:35 @ $89.14 -> 11:30 @ $89.60 = $2.60; RBC 09:35 @ $586.06 -> 15:50 @ $591.44 = $4.60
2026-06-04	$0.00	$0.00	unknown	NUE 09:35 @ $255.57 -> 12:55 @ $262.64 = $13.85; GS 09:35 @ $1052.56 -> 13:11 @ $1087.28 = $16.50
2026-06-03	$0.00	$0.00	unknown	JJSF 09:36 @ $75.52 -> 10:10 @ $74.84 = -$4.50; HSTM 09:36 @ $25.08 -> 10:08 @ $24.85 = -$4.50
2026-06-02	$0.00	$0.00	unknown	DD 09:35 @ $48.13 -> 11:37 @ $48.98 = $8.85
2026-06-01	$0.00	$0.00	unknown	ISRG 09:35 @ $416.19 -> 11:30 @ $420.12 = $4.70; UBER 09:35 @ $71.59 -> 12:06 @ $73.70 = $14.75
2026-05-29	$0.00	$0.00	unknown	DE 09:35 @ $537.04 -> 15:50 @ $542.93 = $5.50; UBER 09:35 @ $70.47 -> 12:17 @ $71.61 = $8.10
2026-05-28	$0.00	$0.00	unknown	EFX 09:35 @ $162.15 -> 14:16 @ $164.45 = $7.10; ADBE 09:35 @ $237.51 -> 11:30 @ $239.91 = $5.05
2026-05-27	$0.00	$0.00	unknown	PFGC 09:35 @ $94.47 -> 11:56 @ $96.21 = $9.20; SOLV 09:35 @ $76.89 -> 15:03 @ $76.20 = -$4.50

Shadow Idea Scoreboard and Daily Ledgers

Shadow Scoreboard

Idea Detail

Still Missing

Daily Ledger

Daily Ledger

Still Missing

Daily Ledger

Daily Ledger

Still Missing

Evidence Surface

Still Missing

Daily Ledger

Still Missing

Daily Ledger