Shadow Idea Scoreboard and Daily Ledgers

Idea	Status	Owner	Edge	Fresh Days	Affected	Data	Next Action
Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation	promotion-review	Strategy Research + Paper Trading Operations	$118.55	14/10	14	daily ledger ready	Fresh-day target has been met; use the final research report step before any promotion conversation.
Best Single vs Basket	promotion-review	Strategy Research	$23.10	25/10	10	daily ledger ready	Promotion review is complete; continue paper-only audit, retirement monitoring, and daily evidence capture.
Adaptive Exit Replay	keep-testing	Paper Trading Operations		1/10	1	daily ledger ready	Continue collecting fresh checkpoint packets and run variant-by-variant full-day exit replay after each closed paper day.
Wide-To-Narrow Runner Ladder	paper-behavior-active	Paper Trading Operations	$1396.63	10/10	4943	daily ledger ready	Run paper-mode rehearsal and tomorrow readiness checks; monitor affected cases against the fixed-current ladder with automatic retirement if the rule underperforms.
Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation	paper-behavior-active	Market Discovery	$148.68	14/10	14	daily ledger ready	Promotion complete for paper-only behavior; keep selected-vs-rejected audit evidence and retire immediately if the fixed retirement rule trips.
md-live-gainer-candle-shape-entry	keep-testing	Strategy Research	$0.00	0/10	0	needs extra data	Resume the bounded local backtest until the durable report is complete.
md-macd-exit-only-trigger	keep-testing	Paper Trading Operations	$0.00	0/10	0	needs extra data	Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and compare the alternate exit against the official realized exit without mutating paper behavior.
md-anchored-vwap-reclaim-entry	keep-testing	Strategy Research	$0.00	0/10	0	needs extra data	Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and score the alternate entry side by side against the official paper path without mutating behavior.
md-renko-trend-hold-exit	keep-testing	Paper Trading Operations	$5.38	0/10	0	needs extra data	Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and compare the alternate exit against the official realized exit without mutating paper behavior.
md-vwap-band-reversion-entry	keep-testing	Strategy Research	$0.00	0/10	0	needs extra data	Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and score the alternate entry side by side against the official paper path without mutating behavior.
shadow-pre-midday-profit-protect	keep-testing	Paper Trading Operations	$174.46	0/10	0	needs extra data	Split adaptive exits into a focused pre-midday-profit-protect variant and rerun the checkpoint replay on every new paper day.
shadow-early-stop-reclaim-window	keep-testing	Paper Trading Operations	-$1.82	2/10	1	needs extra data	Retire the broad confirmation-quality delay and replace it with a reclaim-window-only redesign for the next replay pass.
shadow-momentum-impulse-cluster-tiebreak	keep-testing	Strategy Research	$3.84	6/10	6	needs extra data	Create the narrower momentum-impulse tie-break variant and rerun historical + shadow affected-day comparison.
md-opening-confirmation-passer-basket	paper-behavior-active	Market Discovery		0/10	0	needs extra data	The mapped gated lane has already passed its controlled promotion review and remains paper-only; continue audit and retirement monitoring.
shadow-axsm-like-opening-confirmation-basket	keep-testing	Market Discovery		0/10	0	needs extra data	Narrow AXSM-like discovery to the opening-confirmation basket variant and track it separately on the scoreboard.

Idea

Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation promotion-review

Strategy Research + Paper Trading Operations | daily shadow selection

Measured Edge

$118.55

Fresh days 14/10 | Affected 14

Current State

contract-complete-awaiting-review

Fresh-day target has been met; use the final research report step before any promotion conversation.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/winner-like-early-confirmation-shadow-basket/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: winner-like-day-ledger

Today

State

attempted-not-counted

2026-06-17 | gate 09:50 ET

Today's winner-like strategy artifact was refreshed provisionally; it will not count until the full-day replay after the final window.

Normal Basket

FTNT

Comparison only; this study does not mutate official paper behavior.

Current Today Shadow Basket

Current provisional roster, not completed history

OMCCRBG

2026-06-17 | provisional-intraday-replay-not-counted | active-shadow-study-replayed | frozen-preliminary-selection-replayed

Current-day status: provisional | Counts today: no | Provisional outcome: $13.78

Completed prior-day picks are shown below in History only.

Symbol	Rank	Entry	Latest / Exit	P/L	High	Low	Runner	Data
OMC	1	09:35 @ $76.58	11:30 @ $77.36 (runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate)	$5.10 / +1.02%	+1.99%	-0.31%	active	same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local / full-day
CRBG	2	09:35 @ $29.38	13:18 (open as of latest candle)	$8.68 / +1.74%	+2.04%	-0.10%	active	same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local / partial

Entered Paper Basket

FTNT

2026-06-17 | entered-paper-basket | official-paper-ledger-and-position-exit-reports

Symbol	Status	Score	P/L	P/L %	Trigger	Data
FTNT	closed	81.1	-$3.67	-0.75%	stop-loss	fresh-live-like / good

Current Pre-Confirmation Roster

Seed / Baseline Exclusion

AXSM

AXSM is the canonical Winner-Like seed/profile symbol and may appear as the official paper baseline, but it is intentionally excluded from the Winner-Like shadow candidate roster to avoid self-matching and official-vs-shadow contamination.

Official baseline today: FTNT

Rank	Symbol	Bucket	Similarity	Discovery
1	CBT	prime	93.45	98
2	FTNT	prime	89.75	98
3	ALLY	prime	88.45	98
4	TXRH	prime	88.4	98
5	DVA	prime	88.3	98
6	WSO	prime	88.25	98
7	MTCH	prime	88.2	98
8	NDAQ	prime	88.15	98
9	OMC	prime	88.1	98
10	CRBG	prime	87.95	98

Strategy outcome: $118.55 across 14/10 fresh day(s).
Right days: 12. Wrong days: 2.
Latest Winner-Like day 2026-06-17: OMC, CRBG with $13.78 outcome.
Winner-Like shadow basket 2026-06-17: OMC, CRBG.
Official entered paper basket 2026-06-17: FTNT.

Completed History

These are finalized ledger rows, not today's current candidate roster.

Date	Symbols	Outcome	Direction	Detail
2026-06-15	AER	-$4.50	wrong	trade AER 09:35 @ $143.61 -> 12:36 @ $142.32 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 389 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $143.61 Exit 12:36 $142.32 -0.90% entry 09:35 $143.61 high after entry 09:58 $145.32 +1.19% low after entry 15:52 $141.38 -1.55% exit: stop-loss 12:36 $142.32 -0.90%
2026-06-15	FWONK	-$4.50	wrong	trade FWONK 09:35 @ $91.11 -> 10:16 @ $90.29 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 338 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $91.11 Exit 10:16 $90.29 -0.90% entry 09:35 $91.11 high after entry 10:04 $91.62 +0.56% low after entry 14:03 $89.17 -2.13% exit: stop-loss 10:16 $90.29 -0.90%
2026-06-12	MO	$0.15	right	trade MO 09:35 @ $71.67 -> 15:50 @ $71.69 = $0.15 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; time-closeout) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 392 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $71.67 Exit 15:50 $71.69 +0.03% entry 09:35 $71.67 high after entry 10:06 $72.02 +0.49% low after entry 09:35 $71.31 -0.50% exit: time-closeout 15:50 $71.69 +0.03%
2026-06-12	TMUS	$3.05	right	trade TMUS 09:35 @ $186.38 -> 11:30 @ $187.51 = $3.05 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 392 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $186.38 Exit 11:30 $187.51 +0.61% entry 09:35 $186.38 high after entry 15:53 $189.64 +1.75% low after entry 10:00 $185.58 -0.43% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $187.51 +0.61% 11:00 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.53% - target +1.50% 11:22 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.81% - protected floor +0.89% 11:23 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.88% - protected floor +0.89% 11:24 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.78% - protected floor +0.89% 11:25 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.64% - protected floor +0.89% 11:26 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.65% - protected floor +0.89% 11:27 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.57% - protected floor +0.89% 11:28 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.58% - protected floor +0.89%
2026-06-11	DHR	-$4.50	wrong	trade DHR 09:35 @ $182.34 -> 10:58 @ $180.70 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $182.34 Exit 10:58 $180.70 -0.90% entry 09:35 $182.34 high after entry 09:55 $184.13 +0.98% low after entry 13:22 $177.93 -2.42% exit: stop-loss 10:58 $180.70 -0.90%
2026-06-11	GEHC	$10.95	right	trade GEHC 09:35 @ $63.12 -> 14:03 @ $64.50 = $10.95 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 388 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $63.12 Exit 14:03 $64.50 +2.19% entry 09:35 $63.12 high after entry 13:44 $65.00 +2.98% low after entry 09:35 $63.02 -0.16% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 14:03 $64.50 +2.19% 13:28 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.57% - target +1.50%
2026-06-10	BRO	$12.25	right	trade BRO 09:36 @ $59.69 -> 12:00 @ $61.16 = $12.25 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 386 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:36 $59.69 Exit 12:00 $61.16 +2.45% entry 09:36 $59.69 high after entry 11:00 $61.58 +3.16% low after entry 09:36 $59.69 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:00 $61.16 +2.45% 10:00 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.51% - target +1.50%
2026-06-10	IR	-$4.50	wrong	trade IR 09:35 @ $73.26 -> 10:57 @ $72.60 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 388 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $73.26 Exit 10:57 $72.60 -0.90% entry 09:35 $73.26 high after entry 10:24 $74.05 +1.08% low after entry 15:50 $70.26 -4.10% exit: stop-loss 10:57 $72.60 -0.90%
2026-06-09	FBIN	$3.35	right	trade FBIN 09:35 @ $40.44 -> 11:30 @ $40.71 = $3.35 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 381 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $40.44 Exit 11:30 $40.71 +0.67% entry 09:35 $40.44 high after entry 10:00 $41.60 +2.88% low after entry 12:43 $40.19 -0.62% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $40.71 +0.67% 09:43 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.51% - target +1.50% 10:04 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.82% - protected floor +2.18% 10:05 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.90% - protected floor +2.18% 10:06 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.73% - protected floor +2.18% 10:07 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.77% - protected floor +2.18% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.10% - protected floor +2.18% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.08% - protected floor +2.18% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.14% - protected floor +2.18%
2026-06-09	ISRG	$6.00	right	trade ISRG 09:35 @ $421.31 -> 11:30 @ $426.38 = $6.00 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 382 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $421.31 Exit 11:30 $426.38 +1.20% entry 09:35 $421.31 high after entry 10:33 $430.85 +2.26% low after entry 09:35 $421.23 -0.02% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $426.38 +1.20% 09:52 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.50% - target +1.50% 10:47 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.51% - protected floor +1.56% 10:48 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.22% - protected floor +1.56% 10:49 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.18% - protected floor +1.56% 10:50 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.92% - protected floor +1.56% 10:51 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.03% - protected floor +1.56% 10:52 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.91% - protected floor +1.56% 10:53 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.84% - protected floor +1.56%
2026-06-08	CBRE	$6.85	right	trade CBRE 09:35 @ $130.75 -> 11:30 @ $132.54 = $6.85 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $130.75 Exit 11:30 $132.54 +1.37% entry 09:35 $130.75 high after entry 10:17 $134.10 +2.56% low after entry 09:35 $130.50 -0.19% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $132.54 +1.37% 09:53 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.54% - target +1.50% 10:23 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.83% - protected floor +1.86% 10:24 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.71% - protected floor +1.86% 10:25 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.80% - protected floor +1.86% 10:26 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.61% - protected floor +1.86% 10:27 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.67% - protected floor +1.86% 10:28 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.59% - protected floor +1.86% 10:29 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.50% - protected floor +1.86%
2026-06-08	GFL	$6.65	right	trade GFL 09:35 @ $35.08 -> 11:30 @ $35.54 = $6.65 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 384 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $35.08 Exit 11:30 $35.54 +1.33% entry 09:35 $35.08 high after entry 10:03 $35.92 +2.42% low after entry 15:54 $34.82 -0.73% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $35.54 +1.33% 09:42 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.72% - target +1.50% 10:13 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.53% - protected floor +1.72% 10:14 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.41% - protected floor +1.72% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.58% - protected floor +1.72% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.70% - protected floor +1.72% 10:17 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.67% - protected floor +1.72% 10:18 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.67% - protected floor +1.72% 10:19 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.47% - protected floor +1.72%
2026-06-05	BJ	$2.60	right	trade BJ 09:35 @ $89.14 -> 11:30 @ $89.60 = $2.60 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 384 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $89.14 Exit 11:30 $89.60 +0.52% entry 09:35 $89.14 high after entry 10:01 $90.52 +1.55% low after entry 15:49 $89.01 -0.15% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $89.60 +0.52% 09:58 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.50% - target +1.50% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.63% - protected floor +0.85% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.58% - protected floor +0.85% 10:17 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.34% - protected floor +0.85% 10:18 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.34% - protected floor +0.85% 10:19 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.07% - protected floor +0.85% 10:20 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.28% - protected floor +0.85% 10:21 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.09% - protected floor +0.85%
2026-06-05	RBC	$4.60	right	trade RBC 09:35 @ $586.06 -> 15:50 @ $591.44 = $4.60 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; time-closeout) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 229 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $586.06 Exit 15:50 $591.44 +0.92% entry 09:35 $586.06 high after entry 11:00 $594.65 +1.47% low after entry 09:43 $582.73 -0.57% exit: time-closeout 15:50 $591.44 +0.92%
2026-06-04	GS	$16.50	right	trade GS 09:35 @ $1052.56 -> 13:11 @ $1087.28 = $16.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 381 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $1052.56 Exit 13:11 $1087.28 +3.30% entry 09:35 $1052.56 high after entry 12:58 $1095.90 +4.12% low after entry 09:35 $1052.15 -0.04% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 13:11 $1087.28 +3.30% 10:05 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.53% - target +1.50%
2026-06-04	NUE	$13.85	right	trade NUE 09:35 @ $255.57 -> 12:55 @ $262.64 = $13.85 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 352 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $255.57 Exit 12:55 $262.64 +2.77% entry 09:35 $255.57 high after entry 11:15 $264.67 +3.56% low after entry 09:35 $255.53 -0.02% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:55 $262.64 +2.77% 09:58 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.54% - target +1.50%
2026-06-03	HSTM	-$4.50	wrong	trade HSTM 09:36 @ $25.08 -> 10:08 @ $24.85 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 146 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:36 $25.08 Exit 10:08 $24.85 -0.90% entry 09:36 $25.08 high after entry 09:42 $25.20 +0.50% low after entry 15:23 $24.30 -3.11% exit: stop-loss 10:08 $24.85 -0.90%
2026-06-03	JJSF	-$4.50	wrong	trade JJSF 09:36 @ $75.52 -> 10:10 @ $74.84 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 221 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:36 $75.52 Exit 10:10 $74.84 -0.90% entry 09:36 $75.52 high after entry 09:49 $76.71 +1.58% low after entry 10:19 $74.61 -1.20% exit: stop-loss 10:10 $74.84 -0.90% 09:49 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.58% - target +1.50% 09:57 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.87% - protected floor +0.88% 09:58 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.49% - protected floor +0.88% 10:00 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.69% - protected floor +0.88% 10:01 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.68% - protected floor +0.88% 10:02 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.46% - protected floor +0.88% 10:05 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.30% - protected floor +0.88% 10:06 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - -0.40% - protected floor +0.88%
2026-06-02	DD	$8.85	right	trade DD 09:35 @ $48.13 -> 11:37 @ $48.98 = $8.85 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 387 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $48.13 Exit 11:37 $48.98 +1.77% entry 09:35 $48.13 high after entry 11:07 $49.34 +2.51% low after entry 09:35 $48.13 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:37 $48.98 +1.77% 10:44 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.59% - target +1.50%
2026-06-01	ISRG	$4.70	right	trade ISRG 09:35 @ $416.19 -> 11:30 @ $420.12 = $4.70 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $416.19 Exit 11:30 $420.12 +0.94% entry 09:35 $416.19 high after entry 09:56 $423.95 +1.86% low after entry 15:41 $411.83 -1.05% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $420.12 +0.94% 09:53 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.58% - target +1.50% 10:06 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.10% - protected floor +1.16% 10:07 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.16% 10:08 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.99% - protected floor +1.16% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.98% - protected floor +1.16% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.04% - protected floor +1.16% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.00% - protected floor +1.16% 10:12 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.16%
2026-06-01	UBER	$14.75	right	trade UBER 09:35 @ $71.59 -> 12:06 @ $73.70 = $14.75 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $71.59 Exit 12:06 $73.70 +2.95% entry 09:35 $71.59 high after entry 13:49 $74.56 +4.14% low after entry 09:35 $71.38 -0.29% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:06 $73.70 +2.95% 09:59 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.75% - target +1.50% 10:07 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.95% - protected floor +1.05% 10:08 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.85% - protected floor +1.05% 10:13 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.03% - protected floor +1.05% 10:22 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.05% 10:23 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.87% - protected floor +1.05% 10:24 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.68% - protected floor +1.05% 10:25 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.72% - protected floor +1.05%
2026-05-29	DE	$5.50	right	trade DE 09:35 @ $537.04 -> 15:50 @ $542.93 = $5.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 382 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $537.04 Exit 15:50 $542.93 +1.10% entry 09:35 $537.04 high after entry 15:09 $546.98 +1.85% low after entry 09:35 $537.04 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 15:50 $542.93 +1.10% 11:44 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.57% - target +1.50%
2026-05-29	UBER	$8.10	right	trade UBER 09:35 @ $70.47 -> 12:17 @ $71.61 = $8.10 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 392 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $70.47 Exit 12:17 $71.61 +1.62% entry 09:35 $70.47 high after entry 13:52 $72.24 +2.51% low after entry 15:55 $69.96 -0.72% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 12:17 $71.61 +1.62% 11:05 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.53% - target +1.50%
2026-05-28	ADBE	$5.05	right	trade ADBE 09:35 @ $237.51 -> 11:30 @ $239.91 = $5.05 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-incremental-cache \| Candles: 391 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $237.51 Exit 11:30 $239.91 +1.01% entry 09:35 $237.51 high after entry 10:05 $244.76 +3.05% low after entry 09:35 $236.66 -0.36% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:30 $239.91 +1.01% 09:46 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.55% - target +1.50% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.27% - protected floor +2.35% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.10% - protected floor +2.35% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.01% - protected floor +2.35% 10:12 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.13% - protected floor +2.35% 10:14 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.23% - protected floor +2.35% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.29% - protected floor +2.35% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +2.14% - protected floor +2.35%
2026-05-28	EFX	$7.10	right	trade EFX 09:35 @ $162.15 -> 14:16 @ $164.45 = $7.10 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 345 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $162.15 Exit 14:16 $164.45 +1.42% entry 09:35 $162.15 high after entry 11:50 $165.78 +2.24% low after entry 09:35 $162.15 0.00% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 14:16 $164.45 +1.42% 09:42 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.50% - target +1.50% 10:08 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.09% - protected floor +1.19% 10:09 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.88% - protected floor +1.19% 10:10 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.84% - protected floor +1.19% 10:11 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.75% - protected floor +1.19% 10:12 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.14% - protected floor +1.19% 10:15 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.97% - protected floor +1.19% 10:16 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +0.88% - protected floor +1.19%
2026-05-27	PFGC	$9.20	right	trade PFGC 09:35 @ $94.47 -> 11:56 @ $96.21 = $9.20 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 365 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $94.47 Exit 11:56 $96.21 +1.84% entry 09:35 $94.47 high after entry 15:35 $97.05 +2.73% low after entry 09:40 $94.19 -0.30% exit: runner-protected-floor-after-review-gate 11:56 $96.21 +1.84% 10:00 - target-promoted-to-runner - +1.82% - target +1.50% 10:38 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.48% - protected floor +1.51% 10:40 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.45% - protected floor +1.51% 10:41 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.42% - protected floor +1.51% 10:42 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.41% - protected floor +1.51% 10:43 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.35% - protected floor +1.51% 10:44 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.33% - protected floor +1.51% 10:46 - pre-review-runner-floor-lock - +1.42% - protected floor +1.51%
2026-05-27	SOLV	-$4.50	wrong	trade SOLV 09:35 @ $76.89 -> 15:03 @ $76.20 = -$4.50 (same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local; stop-loss) Candle evidence Source: local-range-cache \| Candles: 379 \| Confidence: same-day-1m-yahoo-or-local \| Mode: final-or-exited-replay Entry 09:35 $76.89 Exit 15:03 $76.20 -0.90% entry 09:35 $76.89 high after entry 13:36 $77.82 +1.21% low after entry 15:49 $75.74 -1.49% exit: stop-loss 15:03 $76.20 -0.90%

Official Paper Comparison History

These rows are the official paper basket baseline for comparison only; they are not Winner-Like shadow history or candidates.

Date	Symbol	Status	Score	P/L	P/L %	Trigger	Data
2026-06-17	FTNT	closed	81.1	-$3.67	-0.75%	stop-loss	fresh-live-like / good

Idea

Best Single vs Basket promotion-review

Strategy Research | basket selection

Measured Edge

$23.10

Fresh days 25/10 | Affected 10

Current State

promotion-review-candidate

Promotion review is complete; continue paper-only audit, retirement monitoring, and daily evidence capture.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/selection-quality/proactive-growth-shadow-evaluation.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the best-single shadow outcome beats the actual basket outcome in dollars.

Best-single shadow beat the basket by enough to request a promotion review.
Current measured edge: $23.10.
Fresh days: 25/10. Affected cases: 10.
Controlled promotion review is complete: paper-behavior-already-active-and-audited. Continue paper-only audit/retirement monitoring; no broker/order, credential, private-account, shorts/options/margin/leverage, or real-money authority is granted.
Basket total -$24.38 vs best single -$1.28 over 29 day(s).
Promotion gate: Strategy Research, Risk/Truthfulness, QA, and explicit Board/user approval passed for the bounded paper-only pre-entry singleton selector; continue auditing each affected paper basket.

Completed History

These are finalized side-by-side ledger rows, not today's current candidate roster.

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-05-12	-$1.04	-$1.04	$0.00	flat	Best PAG; basket PAG; trade PAG 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $170.51 -> historical closeout candle 2026-05-12T19:50:00.000Z @ $169.80 = -$1.04 (-0.42%; stale; score 85; Historical candle replay closeout used because target/stop was not reached.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-05-13	$3.13	$2.50	-$0.63	wrong	Best CBOE; basket VIRT, STT, CBOE; trade CBOE 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $353.81 -> historical target candle 2026-05-13T14:03:00.000Z @ $357.35 = $2.50 (+1.00%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Historical candle replay target reached: 357.35 (1% above entry).)
2026-05-14	-$3.13	-$0.50	$2.63	right	Best UDR; basket UDR, CBOE, COHU; trade UDR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $37.41 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-14T19:49:00.000Z @ $37.33 = -$0.50 (-0.20%; fresh-live-like; score 83; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-15	$3.39	$3.74	$0.35	right	Best ARMK; basket AXSM, ARMK, BEN; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.39 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-15T17:59:44.000Z @ $53.17 = $3.74 (+1.50%; fresh-live-like; score 85; Paper profit target reached: 1.5% >= 1.5%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Profit is available after the preferred midday review window.)
2026-05-18	$5.26	$2.32	-$2.94	wrong	Best OVV; basket WTTR, COST, OVV; trade OVV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $59.26 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-18T14:13:47.000Z @ $59.81 = $2.32 (+0.93%; fresh-live-like; score 81; Good-enough pre-midday paper profit is available: 0.93% >= 0.8%. Morning gain pulled back from the high: high-water 1.35%, pullback 0.42%. Embedded historical 1m candles show profit-target at 2026-05-18T14:03:00.000Z; historical triggers were annotated so UI/reporting no longer contradicts candle evidence.)
2026-05-19	-$3.79	-$0.91	$2.88	right	Best ARMK; basket BEN, ARMK, CACC; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $52.17 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-19T19:49:00.000Z @ $51.98 = -$0.91 (-0.36%; fresh-live-like; score 83; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-20	$2.66	$2.39	-$0.27	wrong	Best BEN; basket BEN, ARMK; trade BEN 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $30.85 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-20T19:45:01.000Z @ $31.14 = $2.39 (+0.96%; fresh-live-like; score 88; Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active. Embedded historical 1m candles show profit-target at 2026-05-20T14:33:00.000Z; historical triggers were annotated so UI/reporting no longer contradicts candle evidence.)
2026-05-21	$3.59	$3.59	$0.00	flat	Best ARMK; basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $50.90 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-21T19:50:23.000Z @ $51.63 = $3.59 (+1.44%; fresh-live-like; score 87; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.16% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active. Embedded historical 1m candles show profit-target at 2026-05-21T13:54:00.000Z; historical triggers were annotated so UI/reporting no longer contradicts candle evidence.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-05-22	$5.06	$5.06	$0.00	flat	Best AXSM; basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.61 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-22T19:44:50.000Z @ $235.97 = $5.06 (+1.01%; fresh-live-like; score 87; TradingView alert confirms long context: enter-long. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-05-26	$0.83	$0.83	$0.00	flat	Best AXSM; basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.70 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-26T19:50:13.000Z @ $234.09 = $0.83 (+0.17%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.08% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Paper runner protected floor reached: 0.17% <= 0.8%; capture the protected gain. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active. Embedded historical 1m candles show profit-target at 2026-05-26T13:44:00.000Z; historical triggers were annotated so UI/reporting no longer contradicts candle evidence.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-05-27	-$0.35	$4.16	$4.51	right	Best AXSM; basket AXSM, DKS; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $233.29 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-27T19:50:23.000Z @ $235.23 = $4.16 (+0.83%; fresh-live-like; score 90; SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.)
2026-05-28	-$8.98	-$4.48	$4.50	right	Best ARMK; basket ARMK, AMAT; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.00 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-28T13:58:15.000Z @ $52.52 = -$4.48 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.)
2026-05-29	-$0.30	-$0.30	$0.00	flat	Best ARMK; basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.57 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-05-29T19:45:07.000Z @ $53.54 = -$0.30 (-0.06%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-01	-$3.14	$2.94	$6.08	right	Best ARMK; basket ARMK, APH, ATEN; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $53.58 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-01T19:45:22.000Z @ $54.05 = $2.94 (+0.88%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 1.53% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Candle-shape signal is a long-only caution: strong-bearish-body (bearish-caution). Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active. Embedded historical 1m candles show profit-target at 2026-06-01T19:20:00.000Z; historical triggers were annotated so UI/reporting no longer contradicts candle evidence.)
2026-06-02	-$4.53	-$4.53	$0.00	flat	Best ARMK; basket ARMK; trade ARMK 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $54.08 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-02T14:25:56.000Z @ $53.59 = -$4.53 (-0.91%; fresh-live-like; score 93; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.91% <= -0.9%. SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-03	-$3.12	$2.87	$5.99	right	Best ADM; basket ARMK, ACIW, ADM; trade ADM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $83.38 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-03T19:45:23.000Z @ $84.10 = $2.87 (+0.86%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper runner mode remains active from high-water 2.39% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed. Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active. Embedded historical 1m candles show profit-target at 2026-06-03T14:46:00.000Z; historical triggers were annotated so UI/reporting no longer contradicts candle evidence.)
2026-06-04	-$4.50	-$4.50	$0.00	flat	Best AVT; basket AVT; trade AVT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $90.65 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-04T14:02:14.000Z @ $89.83 = -$4.50 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: hammer (bullish-watch). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-05	-$4.46	-$4.46	$0.00	flat	Best ALV; basket ALV; trade ALV 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $128.77 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-05T15:12:53.000Z @ $127.61 = -$4.46 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 89; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-08	-$4.45	-$4.45	$0.00	flat	Best AIR; basket AIR; trade AIR 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $118.67 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-08T15:33:58.000Z @ $117.60 = -$4.45 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 88; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support).); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-09	$2.60	$2.60	$0.00	flat	Best AXSM; basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $237.75 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-09T15:34:08.000Z @ $239.01 = $2.60 (+0.53%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper wide-to-narrow-runner-ladder runner mode remains active from high-water 2.19% with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 0.8%. Paper runner protected floor reached: 0.53% <= 0.8%; capture the protected gain. Pre-midday paper profit is available for review: 0.53% >= 0.4%. Morning gain pulled back from the high: high-water 2.19%, pullback 1.62%. Pre-noon lock-profit review is active with 0.53% paper gain. SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Embedded historical 1m candles show profit-target at 2026-06-09T14:15:00.000Z; historical triggers were annotated so UI/reporting no longer contradicts candle evidence.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-10	-$0.29	-$0.29	$0.00	flat	Best ATI; basket ATI; trade ATI 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $185.69 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-10T15:28:42.000Z @ $185.58 = -$0.29 (-0.06%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper wide-to-narrow-runner-ladder runner mode remains active from high-water 2.5% with next target 3.5% and protected exit floor 1.8%. Paper runner protected floor was lost and current P&L is no longer positive (-0.06% <= 1.8%). Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is risk-off. Embedded historical 1m candles show profit-target at 2026-06-10T13:45:00.000Z; historical triggers were annotated so UI/reporting no longer contradicts candle evidence.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-11	$7.39	$7.39	$0.00	flat	Best AXSM; basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $249.75 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-11T16:59:44.000Z @ $253.50 = $7.39 (+1.50%; fresh-live-like; score 92; Paper profit target reached: 1.5% >= 1.5%; promote to wide-to-narrow-runner-ladder runner mode with next target 2.5% and protected exit floor 1.65%. Paper runner protected floor reached: 1.5% <= 1.65%; capture the protected gain. Profit-runner mode is active after the preferred midday review window; continue only while the protected floor and thesis remain intact.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-12	-$4.45	-$4.45	$0.00	flat	Best AXSM; basket AXSM; trade AXSM 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $257.22 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-12T13:43:57.000Z @ $254.91 = -$4.45 (-0.90%; fresh-live-like; score 90; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.9% <= -0.9%. Candle-shape signal is a long-only caution: strong-bearish-body (bearish-caution). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-15	-$4.40	-$4.40	$0.00	flat	Best GTES; basket GTES; trade GTES 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $28.08 -> latest checkpoint candle 2026-06-15T19:45:02.000Z @ $27.83 = -$4.40 (-0.89%; fresh-live-like; score 88; Candle-shape signal supports long context: strong-bullish-body (momentum-support). Closing-window same-day closeout rule is active. Embedded historical 1m candles show stop-loss at 2026-06-15T14:16:00.000Z; historical triggers were annotated so UI/reporting no longer contradicts candle evidence.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-16	-$3.69	-$3.69	$0.00	flat	Best AIG; basket AIG; trade AIG 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $75.67 -> stop-loss candle 2026-06-16T13:55:00.000Z @ $75.10 = -$3.69 (-0.75%; fresh-live-like; score 79; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.75% <= -0.75%. 3 strategy lane(s) are flat, exiting, or negative. Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation). SPY/QQQ checkpoint context is mixed.); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome
2026-06-17	-$3.67	-$3.67	$0.00	flat	Best FTNT; basket FTNT; trade FTNT 09:35 America/New_York unless opening volatility vetoes the setup @ $145.96 -> stop-loss candle 2026-06-17T13:39:00.000Z @ $144.86 = -$3.67 (-0.75%; fresh-live-like; score 81; Paper stop threshold reached: -0.75% <= -0.75%. Candle-shape signal supports long context: bullish-engulfing (bullish-confirmation).); flat because best single matched baseline basket outcome

Idea

Adaptive Exit Replay keep-testing

Paper Trading Operations | exit behavior

Measured Edge

Fresh days 1/10 | Affected 1

Current State

early-evidence

Continue collecting fresh checkpoint packets and run variant-by-variant full-day exit replay after each closed paper day.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/timing-evidence/latest-timing-quality.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is tracked when the actual paper exit can be compared against deterministic timing references from either live timing packets or explicit historical daily-record replay.

Checkpoint evidence exists and passes timing QA, but one day of exit evidence is not enough to promote adaptive exits.
Current measured edge: .
Fresh days: 1/10. Affected cases: 1.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.
Checkpoint packets 64; best historical variant preMiddayProfitProtect.
Evidence gate: Variant must improve drawdown-adjusted paper result across fresh checkpoint packets and pass no-future-leakage QA.

Still Missing

9 more fresh/live-like day(s)
4 more affected case(s)
deterministic improvement metric

Completed History

These are finalized side-by-side ledger rows, not today's current candidate roster.

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-05-14	-$1.87	$0.60	$2.47	right	trade CBOE @ -> @ =
2026-05-14	-$0.76	$4.67	$5.43	right	trade COHU @ -> @ =
2026-05-14	-$0.50	$2.51	$3.01	right	trade UDR @ -> @ =
2026-05-15	$3.74	$5.63	$1.89	right	trade ARMK @ -> @ =
2026-05-15	-$0.74	$2.37	$3.11	right	trade AXSM @ -> @ =
2026-05-15	$0.39	$1.12	$0.73	right	trade BEN @ -> @ =
2026-05-18	$1.83	$2.91	$1.08	right	trade COST @ -> @ =
2026-05-18	$2.32	$3.12	$0.80	right	trade OVV @ -> @ =
2026-05-18	$1.11	$2.29	$1.18	right	trade WTTR @ -> @ =
2026-05-19	-$0.91	$1.87	$2.78	right	trade ARMK @ -> @ =
2026-05-19	-$1.90	$0.71	$2.61	right	trade BEN @ -> @ =
2026-05-19	-$0.98	$2.49	$3.47	right	trade CACC @ -> @ =
2026-05-20	$0.27	$3.18	$2.91	right	trade ARMK @ -> @ =
2026-05-20	$2.39	$4.70	$2.31	right	trade BEN @ -> @ =
2026-05-21	$3.59	$5.23	$1.64	right	trade ARMK @ -> @ =
2026-05-22	$5.06	$5.60	$0.54	right	trade AXSM @ -> @ =
2026-05-26	$0.83	$9.22	$8.39	right	trade AXSM @ -> @ =
2026-05-27	$4.16	$7.30	$3.14	right	trade AXSM @ -> @ =
2026-05-27	-$4.51	$18.04	$22.55	right	trade DKS @ -> @ =
2026-05-28	-$4.50	$13.76	$18.26	right	trade AMAT @ -> @ =
2026-05-28	-$4.48	$6.60	$11.08	right	trade ARMK @ -> @ =
2026-05-29	-$0.30	$4.55	$4.85	right	trade ARMK @ -> @ =
2026-06-01	-$3.01	$3.09	$6.10	right	trade APH @ -> @ =
2026-06-01	$2.94	$5.07	$2.13	right	trade ARMK @ -> @ =
2026-06-01	-$3.07	$12.56	$15.63	right	trade ATEN @ -> @ =
2026-06-02	-$4.53	$0.74	$5.27	right	trade ARMK @ -> @ =
2026-06-03	-$3.02	-$1.14	$1.88	right	trade ACIW @ -> @ =
2026-06-03	$2.87	$7.55	$4.68	right	trade ADM @ -> @ =
2026-06-03	-$2.97	$1.17	$4.14	right	trade ARMK @ -> @ =
2026-06-04	-$4.50	$12.52	$17.02	right	trade AVT @ -> @ =
2026-06-05	-$4.46	$0.00	$4.46	right	trade ALV @ -> @ =
2026-06-08	-$4.45	$0.21	$4.66	right	trade AIR @ -> @ =
2026-06-09	$2.60	$14.30	$11.70	right	trade AXSM @ -> @ =
2026-06-10	-$0.29	$11.80	$12.09	right	trade ATI @ -> @ =
2026-06-11	$7.39	$14.60	$7.21	right	trade AXSM @ -> @ =
2026-06-12	-$4.45	$1.18	$5.63	right	trade AXSM @ -> @ =
2026-06-15	-$4.40	$1.76	$6.16	right	trade GTES @ -> @ =
2026-06-16	-$3.69	$0.91	$4.60	right	trade AIG @ -> @ =
2026-06-17	-$3.67	-$3.67	$0.00	flat	trade FTNT @ -> @ =

Idea

Wide-To-Narrow Runner Ladder paper-behavior-active

Paper Trading Operations | exit behavior

Measured Edge

$1396.63

Fresh days 10/10 | Affected 4943

Current State

promotion-review-candidate

Run paper-mode rehearsal and tomorrow readiness checks; monitor affected cases against the fixed-current ladder with automatic retirement if the rule underperforms.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/wide-to-narrow-runner-ladder-existing-cache-study/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the wide-to-narrow exit ladder beats the fixed ladder in dollars across the same-day replay set.

Latest wide-to-narrow runner ladder existing-cache-multi-date-study helped the fixed ladder by $1396.63 across 4943 affected case(s); promote to a controlled full-study review, not to live paper behavior.
Current measured edge: $1396.63.
Fresh days: 10/10. Affected cases: 4943.
Controlled promotion review is complete: paper-behavior-approved-and-active. Continue paper-only audit/retirement monitoring; no broker/order, credential, private-account, shorts/options/margin/leverage, or real-money authority is granted.
Evidence gate: At least 10 fresh/live-like paper days, at least 5 affected runner cases, positive drawdown-adjusted improvement, no-future-leakage QA, and Risk/Truthfulness review before any live paper exit change.

Completed History

These are finalized side-by-side ledger rows, not today's current candidate roster.

Date	Baseline	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-06-05	-$92.23	-$88.91	$3.32	right	3 affected case(s), 2 improved, 1 worsened.
2026-06-04	$251.89	$247.18	-$4.71	wrong	3 affected case(s), 1 improved, 2 worsened.
2026-06-03	-$75.63	-$70.45	$5.18	right	3 affected case(s), 3 improved, 0 worsened.
2026-06-02	$181.39	$184.54	$3.15	right	9 affected case(s), 6 improved, 3 worsened.
2026-06-01	-$22.68	-$15.98	$6.70	right	7 affected case(s), 5 improved, 2 worsened.
2026-05-29	-$61.72	-$56.62	$5.10	right	3 affected case(s), 3 improved, 0 worsened.
2026-05-28	-$48.07	-$43.77	$4.30	right	3 affected case(s), 2 improved, 1 worsened.
2026-05-27	-$95.74	-$92.60	$3.14	right	4 affected case(s), 3 improved, 1 worsened.
2026-05-26	$1.82	$0.42	-$1.40	wrong	5 affected case(s), 2 improved, 3 worsened.
2026-05-22	-$29.59	-$17.29	$12.30	right	5 affected case(s), 5 improved, 0 worsened.

Idea

Winner-Like Plus Early-Confirmation paper-behavior-active

Market Discovery | candidate discovery

Measured Edge

$148.68

Fresh days 14/10 | Affected 14

Current State

promotion-review-candidate

Promotion complete for paper-only behavior; keep selected-vs-rejected audit evidence and retire immediately if the fixed retirement rule trips.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/winner-like-early-confirmation-shadow-basket/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: daily-ledger-ready

Judging rule: A day is right when the winner-like shadow basket closes positive under the established main entry and exit logic.

AXSM-like universe scan is active as a shadow-only discovery cluster. The original-candidate replay and runner-vs-stop analysis can guide the next backtest features, but this remains single-day evidence and cannot change selection until out-of-sample replay proves value.
Current measured edge: $148.68.
Fresh days: 14/10. Affected cases: 14.
Controlled promotion review is complete: paper-behavior-approved-and-active. Continue paper-only audit/retirement monitoring; no broker/order, credential, private-account, shorts/options/margin/leverage, or real-money authority is granted.
Evidence gate: Run the winner-like plus early-confirmation shadow basket side by side with the normal basket for 10 fresh/live-like out-of-sample market days, with at least 5 evaluated affected days and 5 paper points or 10% improvement before promotion review.

Completed History

These are finalized side-by-side ledger rows, not today's current candidate roster.

Date	Shadow	Edge	Judgment	Detail
2026-06-15	-$9.00	-$9.00	wrong	AER 09:35 @ $143.61 -> 12:36 @ $142.32 = -$4.50; FWONK 09:35 @ $91.11 -> 10:16 @ $90.29 = -$4.50
2026-06-12	$3.20	$3.20	right	TMUS 09:35 @ $186.38 -> 11:30 @ $187.52 = $3.05; MO 09:35 @ $71.67 -> 15:50 @ $71.69 = $0.15
2026-06-11	$6.45	$6.45	right	GEHC 09:35 @ $63.12 -> 14:03 @ $64.51 = $10.95; DHR 09:35 @ $182.34 -> 10:58 @ $180.70 = -$4.50
2026-06-10	$7.75	$7.75	right	BRO 09:36 @ $59.69 -> 12:00 @ $61.16 = $12.25; IR 09:35 @ $73.26 -> 10:57 @ $72.60 = -$4.50
2026-06-09	$9.35	$9.35	right	FBIN 09:35 @ $40.44 -> 11:30 @ $40.71 = $3.35; ISRG 09:35 @ $421.32 -> 11:30 @ $426.38 = $6.00
2026-06-08	$13.50	$13.50	right	GFL 09:35 @ $35.08 -> 11:30 @ $35.54 = $6.65; CBRE 09:35 @ $130.75 -> 11:30 @ $132.54 = $6.85
2026-06-05	$7.20	$7.20	right	BJ 09:35 @ $89.14 -> 11:30 @ $89.60 = $2.60; RBC 09:35 @ $586.06 -> 15:50 @ $591.44 = $4.60
2026-06-04	$30.35	$30.35	right	NUE 09:35 @ $255.57 -> 12:55 @ $262.64 = $13.85; GS 09:35 @ $1052.56 -> 13:11 @ $1087.28 = $16.50
2026-06-03	-$9.00	-$9.00	wrong	JJSF 09:36 @ $75.52 -> 10:10 @ $74.84 = -$4.50; HSTM 09:36 @ $25.08 -> 10:08 @ $24.85 = -$4.50
2026-06-02	$8.85	$8.85	right	DD 09:35 @ $48.13 -> 11:37 @ $48.98 = $8.85
2026-06-01	$19.45	$19.45	right	ISRG 09:35 @ $416.19 -> 11:30 @ $420.12 = $4.70; UBER 09:35 @ $71.59 -> 12:06 @ $73.70 = $14.75
2026-05-29	$13.60	$13.60	right	DE 09:35 @ $537.04 -> 15:50 @ $542.93 = $5.50; UBER 09:35 @ $70.47 -> 12:17 @ $71.61 = $8.10
2026-05-28	$12.15	$12.15	right	EFX 09:35 @ $162.15 -> 14:16 @ $164.45 = $7.10; ADBE 09:35 @ $237.51 -> 11:30 @ $239.91 = $5.05
2026-05-27	$4.70	$4.70	right	PFGC 09:35 @ $94.47 -> 11:56 @ $96.21 = $9.20; SOLV 09:35 @ $76.89 -> 15:03 @ $76.20 = -$4.50

Idea

md-live-gainer-candle-shape-entry keep-testing

Strategy Research | research lane

Measured Edge

$0.00

Fresh days 0/10 | Affected 0

Current State

thin

Resume the bounded local backtest until the durable report is complete.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/intraday-conviction/selection-quality/idea-lab-backtests/md-live-gainer-candle-shape-entry/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

Gate status: waiting-for-backtest; phase: historical-backtest; evaluator: historical-backtest.
Current measured edge: $0.00.
Fresh days: 0/10. Affected cases: 0.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.

Still Missing

10 more fresh/live-like day(s)

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

md-macd-exit-only-trigger keep-testing

Paper Trading Operations | research lane

Measured Edge

$0.00

Fresh days 0/10 | Affected 0

Current State

early-evidence

Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and compare the alternate exit against the official realized exit without mutating paper behavior.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/idea-lab-gated-exit-lanes/md-macd-exit-only-trigger/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and compare the alternate exit against the official realized exit without mutating paper behavior.
Current measured edge: $0.00.
Fresh days: 0/10. Affected cases: 0.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.

Still Missing

9 more fresh/live-like day(s)
5 more affected case(s)

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

md-anchored-vwap-reclaim-entry keep-testing

Strategy Research | research lane

Measured Edge

$0.00

Fresh days 0/10 | Affected 0

Current State

early-evidence

Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and score the alternate entry side by side against the official paper path without mutating behavior.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/idea-lab-gated-entry-lanes/md-anchored-vwap-reclaim-entry/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and score the alternate entry side by side against the official paper path without mutating behavior.
Current measured edge: $0.00.
Fresh days: 0/10. Affected cases: 0.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.

Still Missing

10 more fresh/live-like day(s)
5 more affected case(s)

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

md-renko-trend-hold-exit keep-testing

Paper Trading Operations | research lane

Measured Edge

$5.38

Fresh days 0/10 | Affected 0

Current State

early-evidence

Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and compare the alternate exit against the official realized exit without mutating paper behavior.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/idea-lab-gated-exit-lanes/md-renko-trend-hold-exit/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and compare the alternate exit against the official realized exit without mutating paper behavior.
Current measured edge: $5.38.
Fresh days: 0/10. Affected cases: 0.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.

Still Missing

9 more fresh/live-like day(s)
4 more affected case(s)

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

md-vwap-band-reversion-entry keep-testing

Strategy Research | research lane

Measured Edge

$0.00

Fresh days 0/10 | Affected 0

Current State

early-evidence

Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and score the alternate entry side by side against the official paper path without mutating behavior.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/idea-lab-gated-entry-lanes/md-vwap-band-reversion-entry/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

Keep collecting fresh completed paper days and score the alternate entry side by side against the official paper path without mutating behavior.
Current measured edge: $0.00.
Fresh days: 0/10. Affected cases: 0.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.

Still Missing

10 more fresh/live-like day(s)
5 more affected case(s)

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

shadow-pre-midday-profit-protect keep-testing

Paper Trading Operations | exit behavior

Measured Edge

$174.46

Fresh days 0/10 | Affected 0

Current State

thin

Split adaptive exits into a focused pre-midday-profit-protect variant and rerun the checkpoint replay on every new paper day.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/pre-midday-profit-protect-shadow/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

The best adaptive exit candidate is likely a focused pre-midday profit-protect rule rather than a four-variant family replay. is queued behind its active parent so we only prove one bounded exit lane at a time.
Current measured edge: $174.46.
Fresh days: 0/10. Affected cases: 0.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.

Still Missing

10 more fresh/live-like day(s)

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

shadow-early-stop-reclaim-window keep-testing

Paper Trading Operations | exit behavior

Measured Edge

-$1.82

Fresh days 2/10 | Affected 1

Current State

medium-negative

Retire the broad confirmation-quality delay and replace it with a reclaim-window-only redesign for the next replay pass.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/early-stop-reclaim-window-shadow/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

Keep only if it can produce a deterministic replay metric on the next evaluation pass. Current report: evaluated-shadow.
Current measured edge: -$1.82.
Fresh days: 2/10. Affected cases: 1.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.

Still Missing

8 more fresh/live-like day(s)

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

shadow-momentum-impulse-cluster-tiebreak keep-testing

Strategy Research | candidate ranking

Measured Edge

$3.84

Fresh days 6/10 | Affected 6

Current State

medium-negative

Create the narrower momentum-impulse tie-break variant and rerun historical + shadow affected-day comparison.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/momentum-impulse-cluster-tiebreak-shadow/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

Review for promotion only if paper improvement clears the gate. Current report: evaluated-shadow.
Current measured edge: $3.84.
Fresh days: 6/10. Affected cases: 6.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.

Still Missing

4 more fresh/live-like day(s)

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

md-opening-confirmation-passer-basket paper-behavior-active

Market Discovery | research lane

Measured Edge

Fresh days 0/10 | Affected 0

Current State

paper-behavior-approved

The mapped gated lane has already passed its controlled promotion review and remains paper-only; continue audit and retirement monitoring.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/winner-like-early-confirmation-shadow-basket/latest.json

Live change allowed now: yes

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

The mapped gated lane has already passed its controlled promotion review and remains paper-only; continue audit and retirement monitoring.
Current measured edge: .
Fresh days: 0/10. Affected cases: 0.
Controlled promotion review is complete: paper-behavior-approved-and-active. Continue paper-only audit/retirement monitoring; no broker/order, credential, private-account, shorts/options/margin/leverage, or real-money authority is granted.

Evidence

Aggregate only

Idea

shadow-axsm-like-opening-confirmation-basket keep-testing

Market Discovery | candidate discovery

Measured Edge

Fresh days 0/10 | Affected 0

Current State

thin

Narrow AXSM-like discovery to the opening-confirmation basket variant and track it separately on the scoreboard.

Tracker Artifact

command-center/reports/winner-like-early-confirmation-shadow-basket/latest.json

Live change allowed now: no

Daily ledger: aggregate-only

The AXSM-like discovery idea should narrow to the opening-confirmation filter that already shows strong runner capture and stop avoidance. is already covered by the protected Winner-Like review lane and should not duplicate bandwidth.
Current measured edge: .
Fresh days: 0/10. Affected cases: 0.
Has a valid tracker and contract, but needs more fresh days, affected cases, or deterministic improvement metrics.

Still Missing

10 more fresh/live-like day(s)
deterministic improvement metric

Evidence

Aggregate only

Shadow Idea Scoreboard and Daily Ledgers

Shadow Scoreboard

Idea Detail

Today

Current Today Shadow Basket

Entered Paper Basket

Current Pre-Confirmation Roster

Completed History

Official Paper Comparison History

Completed History

Still Missing

Completed History

Completed History

Completed History

Still Missing

Evidence

Still Missing

Evidence

Still Missing

Evidence

Still Missing

Evidence

Still Missing

Evidence

Still Missing

Evidence

Still Missing

Evidence

Still Missing

Evidence

Evidence

Still Missing

Evidence